摘要
技术领先国家经济政策不确定性可通过技术追随渠道和不确定性引致渠道对技术追随国的科技创新产生溢出效应,溢出效应的方向依赖于两个国家经济政策不确定性对本国科技创新的影响机制。基于一个非线性阈值全球向量自回归(GVAR)模型对美国经济政策不确定性对中国科技创新的非线性溢出效应的研究表明,整体而言,美国经济政策不确定性通过技术追随渠道和不确定性引致渠道对中国科技创新产生抑制效应,并且在低增长机制中的抑制效应相对更大。分行业来看,对于美国更具创新优势的行业,美国经济政策不确定性主要通过技术追随渠道对中国行业创新产生负向溢出效应;其中,低增长机制中的负向效应较大。对于美国具有相对创新优势的行业,美国经济政策不确定性通过技术追随渠道和不确定性引致渠道对中国创新产生溢出效应;其中,高增长机制中产生较小的正向效应,低增长机制产生较大的负向效应。对于中国具有创新优势的行业,美国经济政策不确定性通过不确定性引致渠道对行业创新产生溢出效应;其中,高增长机制中的溢出效应不明显,低增长机制中产生明显的负向溢出效应。
The economic policy uncertainty of the technology leading countries can produce spillover effects on the scientific and technological innovation of the technology following countries through the technology following channel and the uncertainty inducing channel.The direction of the spillover effects depends on the influencing mechanism of the EPU of the technology leading country and the technology following country on the domestic scientific and technological innovation.On the basis of a nonlinear threshold GVAR model,this paper studies the non-linear spillovereffect of the EPU of USA on the scientific and technological innovation of China.The results show that as a whole the EPU of USA can suppress the scientific and technological innovation of China through the technology following channel and the uncertainty inducing channel,and that the inhibiting effect is greaterin the low growth mechanism.In terms of different industries,the EPU of USA in its industries with more innovative advantages can have negative spillover effects on China’s industrial innovation mainly through the technology following channel;among which,the inhibiting effect is greater in the low growth mechanism.In the industries of USA with relative innovative advantages,the EPU of USA can have spillover effects on the industrial innovation of China through the technology following channel and the uncertainty inducing channel;among which,the positive effects are smaller in the high growth mechanism and the negative effects are greater in the low growth mechanism.As for the industries of China with innovative advantages,the EPU of USA can produce spillover effects on the industrial innovation through the uncertainty inducing channel;among which,the spillover effect is not clear in the high growth mechanism,and the negative spillover effect is obvious in the low growth mechanism.
作者
陈普
欧阳志刚
CHEN Pu;OUYANG Zhi-gang(East China Jiaotong University,Nanchang 330013;Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,Wuhan 430073,China)
出处
《当代财经》
CSSCI
北大核心
2023年第4期15-28,共14页
Contemporary Finance and Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目“中美经济政策不确定性、科技创新与高质量经济增长”(71973044)
国家自然科学基金地区项目“人口老龄化与人工智能双重冲击下的经济增长”(72263008)
江西省高校人文社会科学研究青年项目“美国经济不确定性对中国创新的非线性溢出效应”(JJ21213)。
关键词
经济政策不确定性
科技创新
溢出渠道
溢出效应
economic policy uncertainty
scientific and technological innovation
spillover channels
spillover effects
