摘要
受多种因素制约与影响,目前中国区域科学普及基础薄弱,而国内基于数理分析方法探讨科学普及发展情况的研究较为稀缺,因此探索采用数理分析方法对中国各地区科普水平进行评价,并分析其主要影响因素,为今后中国科普工作明确方向与抓手提供参考。从科普人力、物力、参与力3个维度构建科普水平评价指标体系,利用中国31个省份2011—2020年有关数据,采用熵权法-TOPSIS-灰色关联法组合评价方法计算各省份科普水平相对贴近度;并从社会发展系统影响、经济发展系统影响、城市发展系统影响、教育发展系统影响4个维度入手,通过使用CatBoost模型对地区科普水平的影响因素进行分析。结果发现:东部省份科普水平整体相对较高;北京科普水平远远领先于其他地区,其他地区科普水平提升空间较大;除北京外,其他省份之间科普水平存在较小差异;地区经济发展水平、高等教育发展水平、人口聚集水平、网络普及水平、产业结构优化水平、对外开放水平是地区科学普及关键性影响因素,地区科普水平是在社会发展、经济发展、城市发展、教育发展影响交织下进行的。因此,中国各地区今后发展科普事业要重点关注经济落后、教育发展落后的地区,突出地方特色科普,发挥区位优势和科技产业优势进行科普资源提炼,并营造良好科学文化普及氛围。
Constrained and influenced by various factors,the foundation of science popularization in China is currently weak,and domestic research on the development of science popularization based on mathematical analysis methods is relatively scarce,therefor,this paper explores to use mathematical analysis methods to evaluate the level of science popularization in all regions of China,and analyzes its main influencing factors,so as to provide reference for the future development of China's science popularization work.The evaluation index system of science popularization level is constructed from three dimensions of science popularization manpower,material resources,and participation ability,and the relevant data of 31 provinces in China from 2011 to 2020 are used to calculate the relative closeness of science popularization level in each province by using the combined evaluation method of entropy weight method-TOPSISgray correlation method.Starting from four dimensions of social development system impact,economic development system impact,urban development system impact and education development system impact,the influencing factors of regional science popularization level are analyzed by using the CatBoost model.The results show that the overall level of science popularization in the eastern provinces is relatively high,Beijing's science popularization level is far ahead of other regions,and there is more room for improvement in other regions,while,except for Beijing,there are small differences in the level of science popularization between other provinces;regional economic development level,higher education development level,population gathering level,network popularization level,industrial structure optimization level,and opening up level are the key influencing factors of regional science popularization,and the regional science popularization level is carried out under the influence of social development,economic development,urban development and educational development.Accordingly,the future development of science popularization in all regions of China should focus on economically backward areas and backward educational development,highlight local characteristics of science popularization,give full play to the advantages of location and science and technology industry to carry out the extraction of science popularization resources,and create a good atmosphere for the popularization of science and culture.
作者
贺苗
He Miao(School of Marxism,Northwestern Polytechnical University,Xi'an 710072,China;Shaanxi Provincial Key Public Opinion Information Research Center,Xi'an 710072,China)
出处
《科技管理研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2023年第6期105-113,共9页
Science and Technology Management Research
基金
陕西省社会科学基金项目“融媒体环境下重大突发事件舆情演化的特征与应对”(2020M008)
西北工业大学高等教育研究基金招标项目“大数据时代高等教育舆情生态治理研究”(GJJJZ202203)。
