摘要
目的通过分析2020—2022年全球新型冠状病毒感染(coronavirus disease 2019,COVID-19)疫情的流行特征及影响因素,探讨COVID-19流行规律,为制定防疫策略提供参考依据。方法收集COVID-19疫情、人口、经济、人群健康等信息,运用描述流行病学方法及负二项回归进行流行特征和影响因素分析。结果截至2022年12月31日,全球3年平均发病率、死亡率分别为27.95‰、28.44/10万,病死率1.02%。2020—2022年全球COVID-19发病率依次升高(10.67‰、26.04‰、46.98‰),死亡率先升后降(24.82/10万、44.90/10万、15.56/10万),病死率呈下降趋势(2.33%、1.72%、0.33%)。每年各月报告确诊、死亡病例数无明显季节性分布。美洲、欧洲的累计发病率、死亡率明显高于其他区域,非洲的累计病死率最高。高、中高收入国家的累计发病率、死亡率高于低、中低收入国家,低收入国家累计病死率最高。接种疫苗后,除发病率继续上升外,死亡率,病死率等均下降。2020年负二项回归分析显示,卫生支出占GDP比重、出生时预期寿命越高,COVID-19确诊病例数越多。结论2020—2022年COVID-19发病率处于较高水平,死亡率、病死率有所下降,对人群健康影响减弱。不同经济水平国家COVID-19流行水平存在明显差异,国际合作是提高国家间防疫能力的有效途径。
Objective To analyze the global epidemic characteristics and influencing factors of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)from 2020-2022 and discuss the epidemiological partens of the disease,so as to provide reference for and formulation of prevention and control strategy.Methods The data of COVID-19 epidemics,demography,economy,health status were collected.Descriptive epidemiology and negative binomial regression methods were used to analyze the epidemiological characteristics and influencing factors.Results By the end of December 31,2022,the average incidence and mortality rate over the past 3 years were 27.95‰and 28.44/100000,respectively with the case fatality rate of 1.02%.During 2020-2022,the incidences of COVID-19 increased sequentially(10.67‰,26.04‰,46.98‰),the mortality increased first and then decreased(24.82/100000,44.90/100000,15.56/100000).The case fatality rate showed a downward trend(2.33%,1.72%,0.33%).There was no obvious seasonality in reported confirmed and death cases each year.The cumulative incidence and mortality in America and Europe were significantly higher than those in other regions.Africa had the highest case fatality rate.The cumulative incidence and mortality of high-income countries and upper middle-income countries were higher than those of low-income countries and lower middle-income countries.The cumulative case fatality rate was the highest in low-income countries.After vaccination,except for continuously increasement in the incidence,other criteria,including mortality and case fatality rate declined.The negative binomial regression analysis in 2020 showed that higher percentage of health expenditure in GDP and higher life expectancy at birth related to higher number of confirmed case of COVID-19.Conclusions From 2020 to 2022,COVID-19 maintained high levels of prevalence with declined mortality and case fatality rate as well as less impact on populational health.The difference in prevalence levels of COVID-19 in countries with different economic levels was obvious.International co-operation could be an effective route to improve the epidemic prevention capacity among countries.
作者
赵建楠
王英
Zhao Jiannan;Wang Ying(National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 102206,China)
出处
《国际病毒学杂志》
2023年第2期89-94,共6页
International Journal of Virology
关键词
新型冠状病毒感染
流行特征
影响因素
负二项回归分析
Coronavirus disease 2019
Epidemiological characteristics
Influencing factors
Negative binomial regression
