摘要
构建生猪产业可持续发展水平评价指标体系,量化生猪产业可持续发展绩效评估,科学识别产业发展短板,对于指导地方政府调整生猪产业发展战略,促进健康可持续发展多维目标的实现具有重要战略意义。从解析畜牧业可持续发展内涵着手,对标生猪产业高质量发展新格局的总目标,本文构建了包含产出增效、质量安全、疫情防控、资源节约、环境保护、生产调控6个维度的生猪产业可持续发展评价指标体系。本文基于2015—2019年数据,运用熵值法和TOPSIS方法对中国各省份的生猪产业可持续发展水平进行评价,揭示了中国生猪产业可持续发展的时变特征、制约因素与地区异质性。研究结果表明:(1)总体上,中国生猪产业可持续发展水平呈逐渐提升趋势,2015—2017年产业可持续发展速度较缓慢,2018—2019年发展速度明显提升;(2)产出增效、质量安全、疫情防控、环境保护维度的提升对中国生猪产业可持续发展的贡献较大,来自资源节约、生产调控维度的贡献较小,猪肉供给能力下降、养殖成本波动上升、防疫人员缩减等方面成为制约生猪产业可持续发展的重要原因;(3)省际间生猪产业可持续发展水平不平衡,呈现“东部高、西部低”的态势,可持续发展制约因素差异明显,尤其在产出增效方面;(4)重点发展区、约束发展区、潜力增长区和适度发展区的生猪可持续发展能力均存在弱势维度,提高产品质量安全水平、促进资源节约与强化生产调控能力是各区域未来共同的改进方向。因此,本文认为高质量发展新格局下中国生猪产业的可持续发展,应结合区域发展弱项有侧重地进行生猪产业体系建设,率先解决生产设施落后、防疫投入欠缺或环境污染过量的问题,将提升产品质量和优化资源利用作为全国生猪产业可持续发展的突破方向。
Establishing an index system for the sustainability assessment of China's hog industry has important strategic significance for achieving the multi-dimensional sustainable development goals.Starting with analyzing the relationship between sustainable development of animal husbandry and the new pattern of high-quality development,this paper establishes an evaluation index system for the sustainability of China's hog industry with six dimensions:output efficiency,quality and safety,epidemic prevention and control,resource saving,environmental protection,and production regulation.Entropy method and TOPSIS method are used to evaluate the sustainability of hog industry in China's provinces from 2015 to 2019.The results show that:Frist,sustainability of China's hog industry shows a gradual upward trend from 2015 to 2019.Specifically,the speed of sustainable development is relatively slow from 2015 to 2017 while significantly increase from 2018 to 2019.Second,compared with resource saving and production regulation,output efficiency,quality and safety,epidemic prevention and control,and environmental protection contribute more to the sustainable development of China's hog industry.However,restricted sustainable development of hog industry is attributed to the decline of pork supply capacity,rise of breeding cost and reduction of epidemic prevention personnel.Third,the level of sustainable development of hog industry in China is unbalanced,which is“high in the east and low in the west”.The restrictive factors in different regions are in significant differences,especially differ in output efficiency.Lastly,several weaknesses of the sustainability in hog industry exist.For provinces in key development areas,constrained development areas,potential growth areas and moderate development areas,improving quality and safety,resource utilization and production regulation are the improvement directions of sustainable development.Therefore,to promote the sustainability of China's hog industry in the new pattern of high-quality development,we recommend improving the production facilities and investment in epidemic prevention,as well as avoiding excessive environmental pollution.Moreover,improving quality and safety of hog production and optimizing utilization of resource in China's hog industry should be considered.
作者
朱战国
朱书凝
周琳
张彤
ZHU Zhanguo;ZHU Shuning;ZHOU Lin;ZHANG Tong
出处
《农业经济问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2023年第4期105-122,共18页
Issues in Agricultural Economy
基金
国家社会科学基金一般项目“环境规制与非洲猪瘟双重约束下生猪生产布局优化与政策研究”(编号:20BGL177)
江苏省高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(编号:PAPD)。
关键词
生猪产业
可持续
评价指标体系
熵值法
Hog industry
Sustainability
Evaluation index system
Entropy weight method
