摘要
高校宿舍火灾具有影响面广、复杂性强等特点,而传统研究方法在多态性、动态分析宿舍火灾风险等方面存在局限。该文基于国内外86起高校宿舍火灾案例提出了一种基于多态模糊贝叶斯网络的高校宿舍火灾风险评价方法,确定了包含23个三级指标的风险评价体系,构建了高校宿舍火灾故障树,通过故障树转化方法构造对应的贝叶斯模型;将专家评价语义通过三角模糊子集转化为确定的根节点先验概率,用[0,1]模糊数描述节点故障状态,克服了传统贝叶斯网络过度依赖精确概率以及不能考虑节点中间故障状态的问题;基于贝叶斯的双向推理和根节点重要度分析,计算出高校宿舍火灾风险发生概率,辨识出关键致灾因子,进行事故致因诊断。实例验证结果表明,多态模糊贝叶斯网络能够准确评价高校宿舍火灾风险,并确定关键致险因子,可为高校宿舍火灾风险管理提供决策参考。
University dormitory fires are characterized by wide impact and complexity,while traditional research methods have limitations in polymorphism and dynamic analysis of dormitory fire risks.Propose a risk evaluation method of college dormitory fire according to polymorphic fuzzy Bayesian network according to 86 college dormitory fire cases at home and abroad,determine a risk evaluation system containing 23 three-level indicators,construct a college dormitory fire fault tree,and construct the corresponding Bayesian model through the fault tree transformation method;transform the expert evaluation semantics into a determined root node prior probability through a triangular fuzzy subset of The node fault states are described by[0,1]fuzzy numbers,which overcomes the problems that traditional Bayesian networks rely too much on exact probabilities and cannot consider the intermediate fault states of nodes;based on Bayesian two-way inference and root node importance analysis,the probability of fire occurrence in college dormitory is calculated,and the key causative factors are identified for accident causation diagnosis.The results of the case validation show that the multistate fuzzy Bayesian network can accurately evaluate the risk of college dormitory fire and identify the key causative factors,which can provide a reference for decision making in college dormitory fire risk management.
作者
吴书强
邵必林
边根庆
张志霞
WU Shuqiang;SHAO Bilin;BIAN Genqing;ZHANG Zhixia(School of Management,Xi’an University of Architecture and Technology,Xi’an 710055,China;School of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering,Shaanxi University of Science and Technology,Xi’an 710021,China;Information and Control Engineering Institute,Xi’an University of Architecture and Technology,Xi’an 710055,China)
出处
《灾害学》
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第2期31-36,共6页
Journal of Catastrophology
基金
2020年度教育部人文社会科学研究专项任务项目“高校辅导员研究”(20JDSZ3135)
陕西省教育厅2021年度一般专项科研计划(21JK0069)
陕西省教育科学“十三五”规划2020年度课题(SGH20Q211)。
关键词
高校
宿舍火灾
多态模糊贝叶斯网络
风险评价
应急管理
college
dormitory fire
polymorphic fuzzy Bayesian network
risk evaluation
emergency management
