摘要
目的探讨1990-2019年北京市食管癌死亡率的变化趋势,为食管癌防治提供依据。方法利用北京市1990-2019年死因监测资料,采取年龄-时期-队列(Age-period-cohort,APC)模型和内生因子法(IE)估计北京市食管癌死亡风险的年龄、时期和队列效应。结果1990-2019年北京市食管癌死亡率呈波动式下降,最低值为7.12/10万(2000-2004年),升至7.93/10万(2010-2014年)之后又开始下降;标化死亡率整体呈下降趋势,从12.53/10万(1990年)下降到4.04/10万(2019年),下降了67.78%。1990年北京男性标化死亡率是女性的2.4倍,2019年该比例上升至4.9倍。APC模型分析显示,北京市食管癌死亡风险的年龄效应随年龄增加而升高,80~84岁组死亡风险最高,死亡风险系数为1.957;时期效应较为平缓,2015-2019年相对风险为0.852;出生队列效应总体呈下降趋势,变化速度波动较大,同1910-1914年出生人群相比,1980-1984年出生人群食管癌死亡相对风险为0.032。结论1990-2019年北京市食管癌死亡率呈下降趋势。食管癌死亡风险与年龄和出生队列效应有关,年龄越大死亡风险越高,越晚出生的人死亡风险越低。需重点加强对男性和中老年人群的食管癌防治工作。
Objective The objective of this study was to investigate the changing trend of esophageal cancer mortality in Beijing from 1990 to 2019,and to provide evidence for the prevention and treatment of esophageal cancer.Methods Based on the surveillance data of death causes in Beijing from 1990 to 2019,the age-period-cohort(APC)model and endogenous estimator factor(IE)method were used to estimate the age,period and cohort effect of death risk of esophageal cancer in Beijing.Results The mortality of esophageal cancer in Beijing from 1990 to 2019 decreased in a fluctuating manner,with the minimum value of 7.12/100,000(2000—2004),rising to 7.93/100,00(2010—2014)and then began to decline.The standardized mortality showed a downward trend,from 12.53/100,000(1990)to 4.04/100,000(2019),a drop of 67.78%.In 1990,the standardized mortality of male in Beijing was 2.4 times than that of female,and this ratio increased to 4.9 times in 2019.The APC model analysis showed that the age effect of the death risk of esophageal cancer in Beijing increased with age,and the death risk of 80-84 years old group was the highest,with a mortality risk coefficient of 1.957;the period effect was relatively flat,and the relative risk from 2015 to 2019 was 0.852.The birth cohort effect showed an overall downward trend,and the rate of change fluctuated greatly.Compared with those born in 1910—1914,the relative risk of esophageal cancer death for people born in 1980—1984 was 0.032.Conclusion The mortality of esophageal cancer showed a downward trend from 1990 to 2019 in Beijing.The death risk of esophageal cancer is related to age and birth cohort effects.The older the age,the higher the death risk,and the later the birth,the lower the death risk.It is necessary to focus on strengthen the prevention and treatment of esophageal cancer in men and middle-aged and elderly people.
作者
王晶
杜婧
苏健婷
刘庆萍
王苹
韦再华
WANG Jing;DU Jing;SU Jianting;LIU Qingping;WANG Ping;WEI Zaihua(Beijing Center for Disease Prevention and Control,Beijing 100013,China)
出处
《实用肿瘤学杂志》
CAS
2023年第2期97-101,共5页
Practical Oncology Journal
基金
北京市社会科学基金项目(编号:16SRA003)。
