摘要
鲢(Hypophthalmichthys molitrix)是长江干流中重要的经济鱼类,近年来,由于人类活动长期剧烈的干扰,长江鲢资源严重衰竭。2020年1月,国家开始实施长江流域十年禁渔,在此前提下,鲢的未来种群动态变化需要更进一步的分析。本研究基于野外资源调查的结果,结合种群生存力理论模型,模拟分析了长江上游干流水系中野生鲢的种群变化和灭绝概率。结果显示,依照当前的长江生态环境和种群参数,在不考虑放流和捕捞的前提下,长江上游干流段鲢种群在100年内灭绝的概率为75%;在灾害发生频率翻倍的条件下,该时间可缩减至25年内。生殖率变动模拟结果显示,生殖率越低,越易导致灭绝:当生殖率降低至50%、55%时,种群数量分别减少65、62万尾。环境容纳量模拟结果显示,在环境容纳量每10年减少1%和2%的条件下,种群增长率和种群数量逐渐下降。综合以上参数,模拟计算得出长江上游干流鲢种群以95%的概率存活100年所需的最小种群数为500万尾。以上研究结果为未来长江鲢资源的保护与利用提供了理论基础。结合实地考察经验,建议采取减少涉水工程、调整保护区范围等有效措施对长江鲢资源进行保护。[中国渔业质量与标准,2023,13(2):37-45].
Silver carp(Hypophthalmichthys molitrix)is an important commercial fish in the main stream of the Yangtze River.In recent years,due to the long-term and severe disturbance of human activities,the silver carp resources in the Yangtze River have been seriously depleted.In January 2020,China began to implement a ten-year fishing ban in the Yangtze River Basin.Under this premise,the future population dynamics of silver carp requires further simulation analysis.Based on the results of the field resource survey,combined with the ecological environment and population parameters,this study carries on a simulation analysis for the population change and extinction probability of wild silver carp in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River.The results show that according to the current ecological environment and population parameters of the Yangtze River,the extinction probability of some silver carp populations in the Yangtze River within 100 years is 75%without considering the release and fishing.The extinction time can be reduced to 25 years under the condition of the double frequency of disasters.Furthermore,the results show that the reproductive rate of the silver carp population in the Yangtze River is closely related to the extinction probability.When the reproductive rate reduces to 50%and 55%,the population numbers could decrease by 650,000 and 620,000,respectively.The results of the environmental capacity show that the population growth rate and the population numbers could decrease gradually under the condition that the environmental capacity decreases by 1%and 2%every 10 years.Based on the above parameters,the simulation calculation shows that the minimum population of the silver carp in the Yangtze River needs to be 5 million with the survivial probability of 95%in 100 years..The above research results provide a theoretical basis for the protection and utilization of silver carp resources in the Yangtze River in the future.Combined with the field inspection experiences,it is suggested to take effective measures to protect the silver carp resources in the Yangtze River,such as reducing wading projects,adjusting the scope of protected areas and so on.[Chinese Fishery Quality and Standards,2023,13(2):37-45]
作者
夏聪
陈敬琛
刘东
XIA Cong;CHEN Jingcheng;LIU Dong(Chang zhou Museum,Changzhou 213000,China;Shanghai Universities Key Laboratory of Marine Animal Taxonomy and Evolution,Shanghai Ocean University,Shanghai 201306,China;Engineering Research Center of Environmental DNA and Ecological Water Health Assessment,Shanghai Ocean University,Shanghai 201306,China)
出处
《中国渔业质量与标准》
2023年第2期37-45,共9页
Chinese Fishery Quality and Standards
基金
生态环境部生物多样性调查与评估(2019HJ2096001006)。
关键词
长江
鲢
种群生存力
保护
Yangtze River
Hypophthalmichthys molitrix
population viability
protection
