摘要
深入分析中国农产品出口影响因素与贸易潜力,可为科学把握入世以来中国农产品贸易趋势,进一步推动中国农产品贸易发展提供参考。基于2001~2020年中国向主要国家和地区出口农产品贸易数据,采用随机前沿引力模型和贸易非效率模型探究其影响因素,进一步测算贸易潜力与效率。结果表明,中国与农产品主要进口国的经济规模和地理边界因素对贸易有显著正向影响,而人口规模和地理距离有显著负向影响;班轮运输连通性指数、关税水平、自贸协定签订和世贸组织加入情况可显著促进贸易效率提升,而贸易自由度和货币自由度对贸易效率提升有显著阻碍作用。此外,中国对日本的农产品出口贸易潜力最大,而对越南、泰国等东南亚国家的出口贸易潜力较小。对此,应利用好WTO新一轮谈判契机,加强与各国之间的农产品贸易合作;持续推动国家经济发展,大力推进农产品国际贸易基础设施建设,与各国共同打造高效畅通便捷的农产品立体交通贸易网络;积极推进与贸易效率较高国家的合作,进一步挖掘贸易潜力。
An in-depth analysis of the influencing factors and trade potential of China's agricultural exports can provide a scientific grasp of China's agricultural trade patterns since WTO accession and provide a reference for further promoting the development of China's agricultural trade.Based on the trade data of China's agricultural exports to major countries and regions from 2001 to 2020,a stochastic frontier gravity model and a trade inefficiency model were used to explore the influencing factors and further measure the trade potential and efficiency.The results showed that economic size and geographical border factors between China and major agricultural importing countries had a significant positive effect,while population size and geographical distance had a negative effect;liner shipping connectivity index,tariff level,FTA signing and WTO accession significantly contributed to trade efficiency,while trade freedom and currency freedom had a hindering effect on trade efficiency.In addition,China had the greatest trade potential for agricultural exports to Japan,while South East Asian countries,such as Vietnam and Thailand had less trade potential.Therefore,the opportunity of the new round of WTO negotiations should be made good of use to strengthen agricultural trade cooperation with other countries;vigorously promote the construction of international trade infrastructure for agricultural products,and work with other countries to build an efficient,smooth and convenient three-dimensional transportation and trade network for agricultural products;and actively promote cooperation with countries with higher trade efficiency to further explore trade potential.
作者
李婷婷
陈珏颖
武舜臣
刘合光
LI Tingting;CHEN Jueying;WU Shunchen;LIU Heguang(Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100081,China;Rural Development Institute,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100732,China)
出处
《农业经济与管理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2023年第3期102-114,共13页
Agricultural Economics and Management
基金
国家社会科学基金重点项目(21AZD035)
中国农业科学院科技创新工程(10-IAED-04-2022)。
关键词
中国
农产品出口
贸易潜力
影响因素
随机前沿引力模型
China
agricultural exports
export trade potential
influencing factors
stochastic frontier gravity model
