摘要
随着新能源汽车的快速发展,大量退役的废旧动力电池的环境安全问题逐渐凸显。本文采用Holt双参数平滑法对未来吉林省机动车、新能源汽车保有量进行预测,并据此预测退役的废旧电池产生量与主要污染物产生量。结果表明,“十四五”时期,吉林省废旧电池数量将呈指数型增长,预计产生约1.25万t潜在危害物质。在分析吉林省废旧电池管理现状的基础上,本研究提出了加强环境管理的相关对策,以期为吉林省废旧动力电池管理政策的制定提供参考。
With the rapid development of new energy vehicles,the environmental safety issues of a large number of retired waste power batteries are gradually becoming prominent.This paper uses the Holt dual parameter smoothing method to predict the future ownership of motor vehicles and new energy vehicles in Jilin Province,and based on this,predicts the production of retired waste batteries and the production of major pollutants.The results indicate that during the 14th FiveYear Plan period,the number of waste batteries in Jilin Province will increase exponentially,with an estimated production of approximately 12 500 tons of potential hazardous substances.Based on the analysis of the current situation of waste battery management in Jilin Province,this study proposes relevant measures to strengthen environmental management,in order to provide reference for the formulation of waste power battery management policies in Jilin Province.
作者
孙飞虎
李昭阳
李婉茹
陈铁来
潘文静
陈虹汀
SUN Feihu;LI Zhaoyang;LI Wanru;CHEN Tielai;PAN Wenjing;CHEN Hongting(College of New Energy and Environment,Jilin University,Changchun 130012,China;Jilin Provincial Solid Waste Management Center,Changchun 130051,China)
出处
《中国资源综合利用》
2023年第5期61-68,共8页
China Resources Comprehensive Utilization
关键词
环境管理
废旧动力电池预测
市场供给A模型
指数平滑法
新能源汽车
environmental management
prediction of waste power batteries
market supply A model
exponential smoothing method
new energy vehicles
