摘要
基于欧洲中期天气预报中心(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts,ECMWF)台风路径集合预报逐12 h以及中国气象局中尺度天气数值预报系统(CMA-MESO 3 km、CMA-MESO 10 km)、中国气象局上海数值预报模式系统(CMA-SH9)和浙江省中尺度数值预报业务系统(ZJWARMS)逐6 h预报资料,以2021年台风“烟花”“灿都”影响下浙江区域6 h暴雨(R≥25 mm)为研究对象,对台风降水多模式定量降水预报(quantitative precipitation forecast,QPF)融合技术在浙江台风暴雨预报中的应用效果进行评估。分析结果表明:(1)针对两次台风降水过程,4家区域模式对浙江暴雨预报过高估计,而台风降水多模式QPF融合技术能够有效提高浙江暴雨预报的公平技巧评分(equitable threat score,ETS)、降低暴雨空报率。(2)与台风“烟花”暴雨预报效果最佳的CMA-MESO 3 km相比,台风降水多模式QPF融合技术对暴雨和大暴雨的预报命中率(probability of detection,POD)分别提高18.80%和23.41%,ETS分别提高24.37%和25.76%;与台风“灿都”暴雨预报效果最佳的ZJWARMS相比,台风降水多模式QPF融合技术对暴雨和大暴雨的预报ETS分别提高23.08%和3.23%;且两次过程中该方法的暴雨预报POD和ETS均高于同期浙江业务应用的客观预报。(3)在各家区域模式的台风路径预报差异较大的情况下,采用台风降水多模式QPF融合技术能显著提高台风暴雨预报准确率。
Taking Typhoon In-Fa(2106)and Chanthu(2114)as examples,this study investigates whether the multi-model QPF(quantitative precipitation forecast)fusion method can add values to the predicted 6-h heavy precipitation(R≥25 mm)of typhoon rainstorm in Zhejiang.The model forecasts include precipitation and typhoon track from ECMWF(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts)typhoon track ensemble,CMA-MESO 3 km,CMA-MESO 10 km,CMA-SH9,and ZJWARMS(Zhejiang WRF ADAS Real-time Modeling System).The analysis results are listed as follows.(1)For the two typhoon precipitation processes,all of the 4 regional models overestimate the rainstorm in Zhejiang.In contrast,the multi-model QPF fusion method can effectively improve the ETS(equitable threat score)and reduce the false alarm ratio of rainstorm forecast.(2)Compared with the best model for forecasting Typhoon In-Fa(2106),i.e.,CMA-MESO 3 km,the multi-model QPF fusion method can increase the POD(probability of detection)of rainstorm and heavy rainstorm by 18.80%and 23.41%,and increase the ETS of rainstorm and heavy rainstorm by 24.37%and 25.76%,respectively.Similarly,compared with the best model for forecasting Typhoon Chanthu(2114),i.e.,ZJWARMS,the new method also improves the ETS of rainstorm and heavy rainstorm by 23.08%and 3.23%,respectively.And both of the method’s ETS and the POD are higher than the operational objective forecast of Zhejiang in the two case studies.(3)Furthermore,when there are large differences in the typhoon track forecasts between several regional models,the multi-model QPF fusion method can significantly increase the accuracy of typhoon rainstorm forecast.
作者
姚梦颖
吴梦雯
刘建勇
娄小芬
郑林晔
YAO Mengying;WU Mengwen;LIU Jianyong;LOU Xiaofen;ZHENG Linye(Zhejiang Institute of Meteorological Sciences,Hangzhou 310008,China;State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081,China;Zhejiang Meteorological Observatory,Hangzhou 310007,China;Fujian Meteorological Observatory,Fuzhou 350001,China)
出处
《海洋气象学报》
2023年第2期76-87,共12页
Journal of Marine Meteorology
基金
浙江省气象局科技项目(2022YB07)
灾害天气国家重点实验室开放课题(2021LASW-B21)。
关键词
台风暴雨
概率匹配
集合预报
区域模式
typhoon rainstorm
probability matching
ensemble forecast
regional model
