摘要
浮子漂移实验能够捕捉海域表面海流的特征,为提高海上漂移物漂移轨迹预测模式的预测精度提供改进依据.通过在福建近海的浮子漂移实验,选取兴化湾、厦门湾与湾外近岸海域浮子的运动轨迹,对研究海域的表面流进行分析,并在业务化三维海洋动力模型基础上,结合拉格朗日粒子追踪法,建立了福建近海海上目标物漂移轨迹预测模式,利用浮子漂移实验对漂移模式在福建近海的适用性进行了验证.研究结果表明:湾内浮子运动主要受潮流作用,呈现往复运动的趋势;湾外浮子运动主要由外海环流驱动,有沿等深线迁移趋势,并受到潮过程作用局部形成回流.而本研究构建的福建近海海上目标物漂移轨迹预测模式的模拟结果与浮子漂移结果基本一致,并且相对于湾内的轨迹预测,湾外的模拟有更高的可信度.同时浮子漂移实验还表明FES潮流模型在台湾海峡有较高的准确度,而湾内欠佳.
The float drift experiment can capture the characteristics of sea surface currents,and provide an improved basis for improving the prediction accuracy of the drift trajectory prediction model of the drift objects at sea.Based on the float drift experiment in Fujian offshore,this study analyzes surface currents of the studied regions by selecting the drift trajectories of the floats in Xinghua Bay,Xiamen Bay and the coastal waters outside the bay.And a prediction model for the drift trajectory of targets in Fujian offshore is established based on the operational three-dimensional ocean dynamic model,combined with the Lagrangian particle tracking method.The real float drift experiment was used to verify the applicability of the drift model in Fujian offshore.The results show that the motion of the floats in the bay is mainly affected by the tidal current,showing a trend of reciprocating motion.The movement of floats outside the bay is mainly driven by the circulation in the open sea,with a trend of migration along the isobath,and is partially formed reverse current by the tidal process.The simulation results of the drift trajectory prediction model of Fujian offshore targets constructed in this study are basically consistent with the float drift results,and the simulation of Fujian offshore targets outside the bay has higher reliability compared with the trajectory prediction in the bay.The float drift experiment also shows that the FES tidal current model has high accuracy in the Taiwan strait,but not so reasonable in the bay.
作者
曾银东
郭民权
方许闻
江毓武
郑祥靖
ZENG Yindong;GUO Minquan;FANG Xuwen;JIANG Yuwu;ZHENG Xiangjing(College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,China;Fujian Marine Forecasts,Fuzhou 350003,China;College of Ocean and Earth Sciences,Xiamen University,Xiamen 361102,China)
出处
《厦门大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第3期435-443,共9页
Journal of Xiamen University：Natural Science
关键词
福建近海
浮子漂移实验
拉格朗日粒子追踪法
漂移轨迹预测
Fujian offshore
float drift experiment
Lagrangian particle tracking method
drift trajectory prediction
