摘要
大国竞争的战略节奏是一国决策者依据国内外形势节律性调整轨迹发展的速度与波动程度的动态过程。在内外因素的约束下,战略节奏变迁呈现加速或延迟、平稳或起伏、断裂或延续的非线性变化特点。在特定时间内稳定发展的对外战略节奏可能在偶然的外部冲击下急剧变化并偏离原有轨迹。间断均衡理论认为,外部冲击反馈与大国竞争程度两大变量驱使战略节奏发生“平衡—冲击—间断—平衡”的变化。根据外部冲击的正负反馈与竞争程度高低,可将战略节奏分为激进变革、积极进取、时机顺应与拖延观望四种类型。在百年未有之大变局的不确定环境下,印太地区的大国竞争节奏呈现出渐进稳定与剧烈变化交替叠加的趋势。在实现中华民族伟大复兴的关键阶段,中国外交战略方针从“韬光养晦”转变为“奋发有为”,呈现积极进取的战略节奏形态。在“印太战略”框架下,美国开始反思与调整拖延观望的战略节奏,加紧对华战略制衡。而在新冠疫情、乌克兰危机与中美竞争大背景下,莫迪执政下的印度积极把握印太变局下的发展机遇,其战略节奏呈现激进变革的形态。面对中美印竞争关系的复杂联动,中国外交须审慎平衡大国竞争与外部冲击的双重约束,在奋发有为的战略节奏中坚守战略定力。
The strategic rhythm of great power competition is a dynamic process in which decision makers adjust the speed of development and the degree of fluctuation according to domestic and foreign situations.Under the constraints of internal and external factors,strategic rhythm changes are characterized by non-linear changes of acceleration or delay,smoothness or ups-and-downs,fracture or continuity.The diplomatic strategic rhythm that develops steadily at a specific time may change sharply and deviate from its original trajectory under occasional external shocks.According to punctuated equilibria theory,two variables,namely,feedback from external shocks and the degree of competition among major powers,drive the strategic rhythm into the pattern of"equilibrium-shock-intermittence-equilibrium".According to the positive and negative feedback of exogenous shocks and the degree of power competition,the strategic rhythm can be divided into four types:radical change,active actions,timing compliance and delayed wait-and-see.In the uncertain environment of the unprecedented changes in the past century,the rhythm of competition among major powers in the Indo-Pacific region shows a superposition of gradual stability and drastic changes.At the historical stage of Chinese great national rejuvenation,China's diplomacy has shifted from"keeping a low profile"to"striving for achievement",showing an active strategic rhythm.Under the framework of the Indo-Pacific Strategy,the United States has abandoned its delay-and-wait strategic rhythm and stepped up strategic checks and balances on China.India under Modi's administration is actively grasping the opportunities of the Indo-Pacific order change,showing a kind of radical change strategic rhythm.In the face of the adjustment of the China-US-India triangle,China should balance the dual impact of great power competition and external shocks,and maintain an appropriate strategic rhythm in its great rise.
作者
曹德军
Cao Dejun(School of International Relations,Renmin University of China)
出处
《世界经济与政治》
CSSCI
北大核心
2023年第5期104-132,166,167,共31页
World Economics and Politics
基金
国家社会科学基金青年项目“后疫情时代中美竞争的战略叙事建构与变迁机制研究”(项目批准号:21CGJ005)的阶段性成果。
关键词
战略节奏
间断均衡
“印太战略”
大国竞争
中美印关系
strategic rhythm
punctuated equilibria
Indo-Pacific strategy
great power competition
China-US-India relations
