摘要
在甘肃省经济快速发展的背景下,通过分析甘肃省土地利用时空演变特征与预测“三生”空间变化趋势,能为甘肃省推动区域高质量发展提供决策辅助。先分析20年间甘肃省土地利用变化特征并挖掘诱因,再模拟甘肃省的“三生空间”在四种情景下的变化趋势。由结果可知:在2000—2020年期间,甘肃省草地和耕地持续缩小,主要集中在酒泉、张掖;建设用地持续扩大,定西、甘南、临夏交界处的水域、林地小幅增加;未利用土地增加;草地与建设用地转换程度最剧烈。由多情景模拟结果可知:除了强调发展生产情景外,生产空间均呈萎缩趋势;林地、水域持续扩张,草地大面积缩小,导致生态空间在各情景模拟中呈缩小趋势;生活空间则均呈扩张趋势。“三生空间”在发展综合优化情景中的预测变化趋势与生活条件提高情景的模拟结果相似,但前者更平缓。甘肃省应该抓住发展机遇,推动产业转型并促进土地高效利用,重视酒泉生态恶化问题并及时提出应对措施,改善北山山地区荒漠环境,走上可持续发展道路。
Under the background of the rapid economic development of Gansu Province,by analyzing the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of land use and the variation trend of“production-living-ecological”space,it can provide decision aid for promoting high-quality regional development.Firstly,the characteristics and causes of land use change in Gansu Province in the past 20 years were analyzed,and then the trend of“production-living-ecological”space change under the four scenarios was predicted.The results show that the area of grassland and cultivated land decrease mainly in Jiuquan and Zhangye.The area of construction land continues to increase,the area of water and forest land in the border areas of Dingxi,Gannan and Linxia increase slightly.the unused land increase,the change degree of grassland and construction land is the most drastic.In addition to emphasizing the development of production scenario,the production space shows a shrinking trend in other scenarios.The continuous expansion of forest land and water area,large areas of grassland have disappeared,resulting in a shrinking trend of ecological space in each scenario simulation living space is expanding.The predicted variation trend of“production-living-ecological”space in the development comprehensive optimization scenario is similar to the simulation result of the living conditions improvement scenario,but the former is more gentle.Gansu Province ought to seize the development opportunity,promote industrial transformation and promote the efficient use of land,and actively improve the ecological security of the desert environment in the Beishan Mountains area,so that it can embark on a sustainable development path.
作者
李阜鹏
韩惠
杨树文
LI Fu-peng;HAN Hui;YANG Shu-wen(Faculty of Geomatics,Lanzhou Jiaotong University,Lanzhou 730070,China)
出处
《科学技术与工程》
北大核心
2023年第15期6316-6326,共11页
Science Technology and Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金(42161069)
兰州市哲学社会科学规划项目(22-A34)
甘肃省住房和城乡建设厅科研项目(JK2021-25)。
关键词
生态空间
土地利用变化分析
PLUS模型
多情景模拟
甘肃省
ecological space
analysis of land use change
PLUS model
multi-scenario simulation
Gansu Province
