摘要
目的:分析2011年—2020年湖南省护理人力资源配置现状及公平性情况,预测护理人力资源发展趋势。方法:采用描述性统计学方法、洛伦兹曲线以及基尼系数分析湖南省2011年—2020年护理人力资源配置的现状及其公平性,并运用灰色系统GM(1,1)模型预测护理人力资源发展趋势。结果:湖南省2011年—2020年护理人力资源整体呈增长趋势。相较于2011年,2020年湖南省注册护士数增长了135119名(年均增长率9.83%),每千人口注册护士数增加了2.14名,每平方千米注册护士数增加了0.64名;按人口、地域面积分布的基尼系数分别为0.07和0.30。构建的灰色系统GM(1,1)模型拟合效果好,预测结果显示,2021年—2025年湖南省的护士总人数和每千人口注册护士数将不断增加。结论:湖南省护理人力资源稳步增长,但总体配置不足,护理人力资源人口分布公平性优于地域面积分布公平性,政府部门需要优化护理人力资源地域配置的公平性,推动护理人力资源结构更趋合理化和科学化。
Objective:To analyze the current situation and equity of nursing human resources allocation in Hunan province from 2011 to 2020,and predict the development trend of nursing human resources.Methods:Descriptive statistics,Lorentz curve and Gini coefficient were used to analyze the status and equity of nursing human resources allocation,and GM(1,1)was used to predict the development trend of nursing humans resources.Results:From 2011 to 2020,the overall nursing human resources in Hunan province showed an increasing trend.Compared to 2011,the number of registered nurses in 2020 Hunan province increased by 135,119 nursing staff(average annual growth rate of 9.83%),the number of registered nurses per thousand population increased by 2.14,and the number of registered nurses per square kilometer increased by 0.64.The Gini coefficients of population and regional area were 0.07 and 0.30 respectively.Grey system GM(1,1)model was well-fitted,and the predicted results showed that the total number of nursing staff and the number of registered nurses per thousand population would continue to increase in Hunan province from 2021 to 2025.Conclusion:The nursing human resources in Hunan province increase steadily,but the overall allocation is insufficient,and the equity of population distribution of nursing human resources is better than the equity of regional area distribution.The government should optimize the equity of regional allocation of nursing human resources,and promote the structure of nursing human resources more reasonable,scientific and modern.
作者
李薇
叶曼
邓贤娇
陈诗皓
谭楚霞
LI Wei;YE Man;DENG Xianjiao;CHEN Shihao;TAN Chuxia(Clinical Nursing Teaching and Research Office,The Second Xiangya Hospital of Central South University,Changsha,410011,China)
出处
《中国护理管理》
CSCD
2023年第5期754-759,共6页
Chinese Nursing Management
