摘要
在消防安全风险监测时没有进行消防安全风险后果量化分析,会导致安全风险评定结果可靠性较低,对此,提出基于模糊Bow-tie模型的消防安全风险监测方法。使用主观风险概率与模糊理论,完成消防安全风险模糊概率分析。将布尔代数应用到风险故障树中,构建消防安全风险Bow-tie模型。使用改进层级分析法构建风险等级划分模型,实现消防安全风险监测。实验结果表明:此方法可量化风险结果,保证风险事件权重计算精度,进一步得到可靠性更高的风险等级划分结果,为消防安全风险管理提供保障。
Without quantitative analysis of fire safety risk consequences during fire safety risk monitoring,the reliability of safety risk assessment results will be low.In this regard,a fire safety risk monitoring method based on the fuzzy Bow-tie model is proposed.The paper uses subjective risk probability and fuzzy theory to complete the fuzzy probability analysis of fire safety risk.The Boolean algebra is applied to the risk fault tree to construct the Bow-tie model of fire safety risk.The improved hierarchical analysis method is used to construct a risk classification model for fire safety risk monitoring.Experimental results show that the method can quantify the risk results,ensure the calculation accuracy of risk event weights,and further obtain more reliable results of risk grade division,which provides protection for fire safety risk management.
作者
郑翔
Zheng Xiang(McGatti County Fire and Rescue Section of Kashgar,Xinjiang Kashgar 844000)
关键词
Bow-tie模型
三角模糊数
风险防控
消防安全事故
故障树
危险源
Bow-tie model
triangular fuzzy number
risk prevention and control
fire safety accident
fault tree
hazard source
