摘要
当前住房和房贷分别是中国家庭资产和负债的主要构成部分,那么房价如何影响家庭债务和财富分布?本文基于动态一般均衡框架对这一问题进行了系统研究,结果表明:信贷驱动型房价上涨会产生两方面影响。一方面会使部分具有购房能力家庭通过配置房产跃升为财富水平更高家庭,增加负债家庭中高收入群体比重,促进家庭债务和财富分布结构优化。另一方面,会提高新增购房家庭配置房产难度并引发购房家庭中低收入群体债务扩张的乘数效应,降低其财富分配权重,抑制家庭债务和财富分布结构优化。数值模拟结果表明,后者的作用效果更强。收入驱动型和需求驱动型房价上涨能够提高购房家庭中低收入群体的财富分配权重,起到改善家庭债务和财富分布结构的作用。政策应对方面,“家庭负债收入比”可以作为区分房贷扩张“好”与“坏”的信号变量,盯住其对房贷供给进行动态监管,在一定程度上既能抑制具有潜在金融风险的“坏”房贷繁荣,也能保障家庭用于改善资产状况和提高效用水平的“好”房贷需求。
Since entering the 21st century, many countries in the world have experienced a significant rise in housing prices, rapid growth in household debt, and a sharp increase in wealth inequality. The above economic phenomenon has raised the issue of the relationship of house prices, household debt and wealth distribution. For China, housing and mortgage are the main components of household assets and liabilities, respectively. Therefore, changes in house prices naturally become an important factor affecting household debt and wealth distribution. Motivated by the above observations, this paper investigates the following questions. How housing prices affect household debt and wealth distribution? How to properly deal with the relationship of house prices, household debt and wealth distribution?In order to answer the above questions, this paper analyzes the dynamic relationship of housing prices, household debt and wealth distribution using a tractable heterogeneous-agent model. And then, the aggregate and distributional effects of policies that regulate housing credit supply are studied by developing a two-sector DSGE model with heterogeneous households.The heterogeneous-agent model and the calibrated model economy are found to account for the following facts. Firstly, the upswing in housing prices driven by credit supply generates competing effects on household debt and wealth distribution. On the one hand, it promotes some households to become high-income households by purchasing real estate, and increases the proportion of high-income groups in indebted households, improving the household debt and wealth distribution structure. On the other hand, it produces a debt expansion multiplier effect for low-income groups in households purchasing houses, and reduces their share of wealth, thereby worsening the household debt and wealth distribution structure. After calibrating the model, our quantitative exercise suggests the former effect is dominated by the latter. In contrast, the upswing in housing prices driven by increased household income and housing demand improves household debt and wealth distribution structure by increasing the wealth share of low-income groups in households purchasing houses. Secondly, the tight housing credit policy largely curbs household debt expansion caused by credit supply. However, the housing policy also limits some households' access to housing assets that can improve their share of property and utility levels. Thirdly, the debt-to-income ratio of households can be used as a signal to distinguish between “good” mortgage demand and “bad” debt expansion. Specifically, a policy that regulates real estate loans supply by targeting the debt-to-income ratio of households can prevent bad housing booms with potential financial risks, and meet the good demand for mortgage loans arising from the purchase of housing as a store of value and for residence. The above results imply that both the policy that regulates housing credit supply by targeting the debt-to-income ratio of households and the policy that increase the average income level of low-income households can contribute to stabilizing house prices, promoting sustainable growth of household debt, and equalizing the distribution of real estate.The main contributions of this paper are as follows. On the one hand, quantitative studies on the relationship of house prices, household debt and wealth distribution in a unified framework have been scant. This paper reveals the economic mechanism by which housing prices affect household debt and wealth distribution by constructing a heterogeneous-agent model. On the other hand, this paper identifies a signal that can distinguish between “good” and “bad” mortgage loan expansion, and provides policy reference for properly dealing with the relationship of housing prices, household debt and wealth distribution. In addition, the findings obtained in this paper may provide enlightenment for future research to understand the relationship of housing prices, household debt and wealth distribution.
作者
孟宪春
MENG Xianchun(Center for Quantitative Economics,Jilin University)
出处
《经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2023年第4期171-189,共19页
Economic Research Journal
基金
国家自然科学基金青年项目(72203072)的阶段性成果。
关键词
住房价格
家庭债务分布
家庭财富分布
异质性家庭
House Prices
Distribution of Household Debt
Distribution of Household Wealth
Heterogeneous Households
