摘要
为探究浙江对外服务贸易与汇率波动情况,调查并梳理了2020年初至2022年第三季度末浙江对外服务贸易的发展状况,并建立实证模型分析了对外服务贸易与汇率波动的相关性。研究结果表明:近年来浙江对外服务贸易规模总体呈上升趋势,但贸易结构尚不平衡,市域发展水平差异较大;主要海外市场份额集中于少数国家,新兴市场亟须开拓;汇率与对外服务贸易额存在负效应关系。建议在双循环视域下、汇率升值期间,政府应积极引导资源分配,优化贸易结构;企业应充分利用外汇市场工具避险,快速调整到均衡状态。在汇率贬值期间,政府应加强金融政策扶持,企业应抓住时机扩大国际市场份额,享受外循环经济红利。
In order to explore how Zhejiang’s foreign-service trade deals with the impact of exchange rate fluctuations,this paper investigates and sorts out the development status of Zhejiang’s foreign-service trade from the beginning of 2020 to the end of the third quarter of 2022,and establishes an empirical model to analyze the correlation between foreign-service trade and exchange rate fluctuations.The results show that the scale of foreign-service trade in Zhejiang has been on the rise in recent years,but the trade structure is still unbalanced and the development level among cities is different.The main overseas market share is concentrated in a few countries,and emerging markets are in urgent need of development.There is a negative relationship between exchange rate and foreign-service trade volume.It is suggested that the government should actively guide the allocation of resources and optimize the trade structure under the double-cycle pattern and during the exchange rate appreciation period,and enterprises should make full use of the foreign exchange market tools to avoid risk and quickly adjust to the equilibrium state.During the period of exchange rate depreciation,the government should strengthen financial policy support,the enterprises should seize the opportunity to expand the international market share and enjoy the dividends of external circular economy.
作者
陈泽锴
蒋骥达
CHEN Zekai;JIANG Jida(International Exchange College,Ningbo University of Technology,Ningbo 315211,China)
出处
《宁波工程学院学报》
2023年第2期57-62,共6页
Journal of Ningbo University of Technology
关键词
对外服务贸易
汇率
双循环
foreign-service trade
exchange rate
double-cycle
