摘要
终身未育者增多是欧洲第二次人口转变过程中突出的新变化,已有研究大多认为中国仍是“普育”社会,并将其视为中国第二次人口转变的独特之处。文章以中国上海市为例,从代际差异、婚姻状况、社会经济特征3个维度,使用2020年第七次全国人口普查、1995和2015年全国1%人口抽样调查及相关婚育调查数据,考察女性终身未育现象的变化趋势,并以此为切入口浅议第二次人口转变理论在中国的适用性。研究结果表明,就已度过育龄期和处于育龄末期的女性而言,上海市女性终身未育水平仍低于欧洲国家和同处儒家文化圈的东亚社会;但相对年轻的“65后”“70后”女性与年长队列相比已表现出明显的终身未育水平上升趋势。越是年轻的女性队列,终身未婚对终身未育的贡献越大;非上海户籍女性的终身未育水平低于上海户籍女性,但年轻队列中前者明显向后者靠拢。女性终身未育率还表现出随受教育程度的提高而升高的特征。当前仍处于育龄期的年轻队列受教育程度明显高于年长队列,且婚育观念呈现出明显的现代性和个体性,婚育意愿低迷,推迟婚育的人群规模也在扩大,这些迹象预示着年轻队列的终身未育水平可能进一步上升。在以上海为代表的大城市,女性终身未育现象及其扩散趋势,或许预示着当前中国社会的“普育”现象是“过渡性”的而非“独特性”特征。
The increase of childlessness is one of the salient new changes observed during the second demographic transition in Europe.However,many studies suggest that China is still a"universal childbearing"society,which is also regarded as one of the unique characteristics of China's second demographic transition.Taking Shanghai,the largest city in China,as an example,this paper investigates the trend of women's childlessness by intergenerational differences,marital status,and socio-economic characteristics,based on the data of the seventh national census in 2020,two mini-censuses in 1995 and 2015,and one relevant survey.The paper also discusses the applicability of the Second Demographic Transition theory in China.The findings show that the childless rates of the cohorts that have passed or are at the end of child bearing ages in Shanghai are still lower than those in European countries or in some East Asian societies,however,the relatively younger cohorts,born since 1965 or 1970 in particular,have observed a significant upward trend in childless rates.The younger the cohort,the greater the contribution of lifetime singlehood to lifetime childlessness.The lifetime childless level of women without Shanghai hukou is lower than that of women with Shanghai hukou.And the lifetime childless level also shows a substantial increase with the increase of educational level.For the younger cohorts who are still at childbearing ages,their education is higher than that of the older cohorts,their attitudes toward marriage and childbearing are more modern and individualistic,their willingness to marry and have children is weaker,and the number of women who actually delay marriage and child bearing is also enlarging,which might predict that the lifetime childless level of the younger cohorts will further rise.In large cities such as Shanghai,the lifetime childlessness has shown an increasing trend,which may indicate that the characteristic of"universal childbearing"observed in current Chinese society is more likely to be"transitional"rather than"distinctive".
出处
《中国人口科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2023年第3期68-81,共14页
Chinese Journal of Population Science
基金
国家社科基金青年项目“我国大城市居民婚姻行为的新特征、成因、影响及趋势研究”(编号:19CRK017)的阶段性成果。
关键词
终身未育
第二次人口转变
人口普查
上海
Childlessness
The Second Demographic Transition
Census
Shanghai
