摘要
全球价值链正在朝着本土化、区域化和多元化的方向不断发展,文章旨在考察FTA网络中心地位变化对增加值网络重构的影响。为此,文章基于ADB-MRIO数据库构建2007~2020年的全球增加值网络,并测量了FTA网络的中介中心度指标,随后通过一系列指数随机图模型从整体网络视角进行实证研究。研究发现:(1)FTA网络中心度越高的经济体越有可能在增加值网络中发挥主导作用,即促进了增加值网络的多元化。然而,FTA网络中心地位对于国外增加值网络的促进作用并不显著,这表明FTA网络中心地位主要对价值链本土化产生影响。(2)增加值网络的发展呈现出内在的不平衡性,随着增加值网络传递闭合性的增强,最终表现为增加值网络的区域化重构。(3)在维持模型下,返回增加值网络下FTA网络中心度的影响效应显著为正,这表明FTA网络中心地位的提升不仅可以促进经济体返回国内增加值网络的多元化重构,而且产生的经济影响是可以维系的。(4)返回增加值网络受FTA深度的影响比其他增加值网络更加深刻,数字贸易协定网络下网络中心度的提升对增加值网络的多元化扩张具有更加显著的促进作用。文章为应对全球价值链重构提供了重要启示,为中国制定自由贸易区战略、全面融入全球自由贸易协定网络以及实现增加值网络多元化重构提供了新的思路。
The global value chain is evolving towards localization,regionalization,and diversification.This article aims to examine the impact of changes in the central position of Free Trade Agreement(FTA)networks on the reconstruction of value-added networks.To this end,this article constructs a global value-added network from 2007 to 2020 based on the ADB-MRIO database and measures the intermediate centrality index of the FTA network.Then,through a series of index random graph models,the empirical research is conducted from the perspective of the overall network.The study found that,firstly,economics with higher centrality in the FTA network are more likely to play a dominant role in the value-added network,promoting diversification of the value-added network.However,the promotion of foreign value-added networks by the central position of the FTA network is not significant,indicating that the central position of the FTA network mainly affects the localization of the value chain.Secondly,the development of the value-added network shows inherent imbalance,which ultimately manifests as regionalized restructuring of the value-added network with the strengthening of the closedness of the value-added network.Thirdly,under the maintenance model,the effect of increasing the centrality of the FTA network on the return of the value-added network is significant and positive,indicating that the promotion of the central position of the FTA can not only promote the diversification and reconstruction of domestic value-added networks,but also maintain the resulting economic impact.Finally,the impact of the return of the value-added network by the FTA centrality is deeper than that of other value-added networks,and the promotion of the centrality of the network under the Digital Trade Agreement has a more significant role in promoting the diversification and expansion of the value-added network.This study provides important insights for responding to the reconstruction of the global value chain,and provides new ideas for China to formulate a free trade zone strategy,fully integrate into the global free trade agreement network,and achieve diversified reconstruction of the value-added network.
作者
张天顶
龚同
ZHANG Tianding;GONG Tong
出处
《世界经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2023年第6期26-42,M0002,M0003,共19页
World Economy Studies
基金
教育部哲学社会科学研究后期资助一般项目“融入与重构全球价值链——宏观与微观的连接”(项目编号:17JHQ035)
武汉大学自主科研(人文社会科学)研究生导师育人方式创新项目“全球经济动态、治理与政策研讨班”(项目编号:2023YJ10501)的阶段性研究成果。
