摘要
以中国19个城市群为研究样本,采用绿色全要素生产率来衡量经济高质量发展,运用耦合协调度模型对中国城市群产业集聚与经济高质量发展耦合协调度进行测算,分析其空间分布格局。此外,运用核密度估计和马尔科夫链对城市群产业集聚与经济高质量发展耦合协调度进行动态演进分析和预测。得出以下结论:中国城市群产业集聚与经济高质量发展的耦合协调水平主要表现为濒临失调和勉强协调状态,呈现东高西低的空间分布格局;随着年份的推移,较高水平的相邻城市群对于该城市群产业集聚与经济高质量发展耦合协调发展的推动作用会有所减弱;不同区域城市群内部产业集聚与经济高质量发展耦合协调度的发展趋势有所不同,其中东部沿海城市群和部分发展较好的东北部和中部城市群产业集聚与经济高质量发展耦合协调度处于勉强协调向高度协调阶段发展时,相邻城市对该城市的影响会有所减弱,西部城市群则与之相反。中国城市群产业集聚与经济高质量的耦合协调发展具有较好的发展趋势,耦合协调度随着时间的推移而逐渐提升。
Taking 19 urban agglomerations in China as research samples,green Total factor productivity is used to measure high-quality economic development.The coupling coordination degree model is used to measure the coupling coordination degree of industrial agglomeration and high-quality economic development in urban agglomerations in China,and analyze its spatial distribution pattern.In addition,Kernel density estimation and Markov chain are used to analyze and predict the dynamic evolution of the coupling coordination degree of industrial agglomeration and high-quality economic development in urban agglomerations.The following conclusion can be drawn:The coupling and coordination level between industrial agglomeration and high-quality economic development in Chinese urban agglomerations is mainly manifested as a state of near imbalance and barely coordination,presenting a spatial distribution pattern of high in the east and low in the west;With the passage of years,the driving effect of higher-level neighboring urban agglomerations on the coupling and coordinated development of industrial agglomeration and high-quality economic development in the urban agglomerations will weaken;The development trend of the coupling and coordination degree of industrial agglomeration and high-quality economic development within urban agglomerations in different regions is different.When the coupling and coordination degree of industrial agglomeration and high-quality economic development in eastern coastal urban agglomerations and some well developed urban agglomerations in northeast and central China is in the stage of barely coordinated development to highly coordinated development,the impact of neighboring cities on the city will be weakened,while the impact of western urban agglomerations will be the opposite.The coupling and coordinated development of industrial agglomeration and high-quality economy in Chinese urban agglomerations has a good development trend,and the degree of coupling and coordination gradually increases over time.
作者
乔小明
唐婷婷
QIAO Xiao-ming;TANG Ting-ting(Journal Editorial Department,Yunnan Normal University,Kunming 650092,China;School of Ethnology and Sociology,Guangxi Minzu University,Nanning 530006,China)
出处
《南昌大学学报（人文社会科学版）》
CSSCI
2023年第3期59-71,共13页
Journal of Nanchang University(Humanities and Social Sciences)
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目“新时代我国西部中心城市和城市群高质量协调发展战略研究”(20&ZD157)。
关键词
城市群
产业集聚
经济高质量发展
动态演进
urban agglomeration
industrial agglomeration
high quality economic development
dynamic evolution
