摘要
自“9·11”事件以来,美国与塔利班的战略博弈决定了阿富汗问题的走向。针对美国对塔利班政策缘何变迁这一经验困惑,现有研究无法给出令人信服的解释。本文认为,地区威胁认知与政治精英共识是影响美国政策变迁的关键变量,威胁认知框定政策变化的整体方向,精英共识反映美国干预地区事务的行动意愿。当阿富汗地区体系传递的威胁认知处于高位,美国采取强制型的对塔利班政策,随着威胁认知由强及弱,美国从强制型转向接触型的对塔利班政策。在精英共识因素的共同作用下,美国四任政府分别奉行“强制主导型政策”、“摇摆型强制政策”、“摇摆型接触政策”以及“接触主导型政策”。美国的退出政策消弭了美塔开展新型关系的结构性矛盾,但美国在阿富汗的“离岸平衡”及“超视距反恐”加剧了地区的地缘政治风险。
Following the September 1l attacks,the strategic interplay between the U.S.and the Taliban has determined the direction of the Afghanistan issue.The existing literature fails to provide a convincing explanation for the change in American policy towards the Taliban.This article argues that the key variables shaping the evolution of American policy are threat perception and elite consensus.Threat perception provides a framework for the overall direction of policy,while elite consensus reflects the willingness of the U.S.to intervene in regional affairs.When perceived threats stemming from Afghanistan are seen as substantial,the U.S.adopts a coercive policy towards the Taliban;as threat perception levels off,the U.S.shifts from a coercive policy to an engagement-oriented policy.When elite consensus is also factored into the equation,it is identified that the past four U.S.administrations have followed policies that can be considered respectively as:largely coercive;wavering coercion;wavering engagement;and engagement.America's withdrawal from Afghanistan has resolved the structural contradiction which inhibit a reset of relations between the U.S.and the Taliban.While so,America's offshore balancing and"beyond visual range"counterterrorism have aggravated geo-political risk in the region.
作者
陈小沁
潘子阳
Chen Xiaoqin;Pan Ziyang
出处
《南亚研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2023年第2期18-38,154,共22页
South Asian Studies
基金
中国人民大学科学研究基金(中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助)项目“欧亚地缘变局对上海合作组织的影响及应对研究”(项目批准号:23XNH045)的阶段性成果。
关键词
塔利班
阿富汗
威胁认知
精英共识
美国政策行为
Taliban
Afghanistan
Threat Perception
Elite Consensus
American Policy Behavior
