摘要
为揭示东北黑土区农业干旱脆弱性的时空演化过程与特征,本研究以黑龙江省为例,从暴露水平、敏感程度和适应能力的视角,构建了农业干旱脆弱性评价模型,解析了2000—2020年黑龙江省水稻、玉米、大豆的干旱脆弱性的时空演进过程与特征。结果显示:2000—2011年农业干旱事件频发,其中有8个敏感事件和11个韧性事件,2011年以后再无农业干旱事件发生,2011—2020年水稻、玉米和大豆的干旱脆弱性较2000—2010年分别下降了46.14%、51.50%和38.53%;受作物生育需水量与地区降水不匹配的影响,大豆、水稻的干旱脆弱性相对较高。研究表明,黑龙江省农业干旱脆弱性总体呈先增强后减弱的演进趋势,呈北高南低和东西高、中部低的空间分布格局。基于该结果,本研究提出了旨在提升东北黑土区农业适应气候变化韧性的政策及措施建议。
Taking rice,maize,and soybean as the study subjects,we constructed an assessment model of agricultural vulnerability to drought from the perspectives of exposure,sensitivity,and adaptability.We then evaluated the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of drought vulnerability in Heilongjiang from 2000 to 2020.The results showed that agricultural drought events occurred frequently from 2000 to 2011,and there were no agricultural drought events after 2011.The drought vulnerability of rice,maize,and soybean in 2011—2020 decreased by 46.14%,51.50%,and 38.53%,respectively,compared with that in 2000—2010.Owing to the mismatch between the water demand during the crop growth period and regional precipitation,the drought vulnerability of rice and soybean were higher.The results showed that the agricultural vulnerability to drought of Heilongjiang Province increased in the period of 2000—2010 and declined afterwards.The north,east,and west parts of Heilongjiang Province had higher agricultural vulnerability to drought compared with the south and central parts.Finally,we put forward policy implications to improve the agricultural resilience to drought in the black soil region of northeast China.
作者
李玉恒
成汶璟
左文洁
杜国明
LI Yuheng;CHENG Wenjing;ZUO Wenjie;DU Guoming(Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;College of Resources and Environment,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;School of Public Administration and Law,Northeast Agricultural University,Harbin 150030,China)
出处
《农业资源与环境学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第4期953-964,共12页
Journal of Agricultural Resources and Environment
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(42171208)。
关键词
东北黑土区
农业脆弱性
气候变化
干旱
粮食安全
black soil region of northeast China
agricultural vulnerability
climate change
drought
food security
