摘要
海外油气项目具有高投资、高风险和高不确定性的特点,对项目方案进行评价研究是确保项目效益的有效手段。针对海外油气多目标多属性的复杂特征,基于实际项目资料建立了经济、成本、风险三级海外油气方案评价指标体系,采用熵权法确定了不同评价指标的客观权重,然后利用TOPSIS方法对海外油气项目的各个投资方案进行了排序比选。实际应用表明,和成本风险指标相比,目前经济指标仍是影响海外油气投资方案选择的主要原因,但考虑到油气决策的复杂特征,细化评价指标体系内容可以使得最终决策更为精确。
Overseas oil and gas projects have the characteristics of high investment,high risk and high uncertainty.Evaluation on the project schemes is an effective means to ensure the benefits of the project.Considering the complex characteristics of multi-objective and multi-attribute of overseas oil and gas projects,a three-level evaluation index system of economy,cost and risk was established based on the actual project data.Based on the entropy weighting method,the objective weight of different evaluation indexes was determined,and then using TOPSIS method,the investment schemes of overseas oil and gas projects was ranked and compared.The practical application shows that compared with the cost and risk indexes,the current economic index is still the main reason affecting the selection of overseas oil and gas investment scheme.However,considering the complex characteristics of oil and gas decision-making,refining the content of the evaluation index system can make the final decision more accurate.
作者
钱媛
QIAN Yuan(Petroleum Exploration and Production Research Institute,SINOPEC,Beijing 102206,China)
出处
《科技和产业》
2023年第11期143-147,共5页
Science Technology and Industry
关键词
海外油气
方案评价
熵权法
TOPSIS
overseas oil and gas
evaluation of schemes
entropy weighting
TOPSIS
