摘要
采用增加值核算法测算中国整体制造业及高碳制造业出口隐含碳生产率,分析其低碳贸易竞争力;基于STIRPAT模型从技术和结构两方面研判低碳贸易竞争力的影响因素,预测基准、低碳技术、出口结构优化、能源结构绿色、低碳综合等5种情景下2021—2030年的低碳贸易竞争力。结果表明:中国出口增加将加剧国内减排压力,出口中90%以上的隐含碳都留在国内;能源利用效率是整体制造业低碳贸易竞争力的首要影响因素,能源消费结构对高碳行业影响较大;按发展趋势,2030年制整体造业出口隐含碳生产率略低于欧盟1995年的发展水平,低碳贸易竞争力较低;按“十四五”政策目标发展,2030年整体制造业隐含碳生产率将达到欧盟2003年的水平,高碳行业中的非金属制品业能超过欧盟2018年的水平。
Taking China’s manufacturing and high-carbon sectors as the research industry,this paper uses the value added accounting method to measure carbon productivity embodied in export,and analyzes the low-carbon trade competitiveness of China.Based on the STIRPAT model,this paper also analyzes the factors of low-carbon trade competitiveness from the aspects of technology and structure,and predicts the low-carbon trade competitiveness in 2021—2030 under five scenarios,including low-carbon technology scenario,export structure optimization scenario and green energy structure scenario.Results show that:The increase of China’s export will intensify the pressure of domestic emission reduction,and more than 90%of the carbon embodied in export remains in China.Energy utilization efficiency is the primary factor of the low-carbon trade competitiveness of manufacturing industry,and energy consumption structure has greater impact on high-carbon sectors.According to the historical trend,the carbon productivity embodied in export of manufacturing industry in 2030 is slightly lower than that of EU in 1995,and the low-carbon trade competitiveness is low.According to the goals of the 14th Five-Year Plan,the carbon productivity embodied in export of manufacturing industry in 2030 will reach the level of the EU in 2003,and that of the non-metallic sector will exceed the level of the EU in 2018.
作者
史安娜
陆瑶
SHI Anna;LU Yao(Busines s School,Hohai University,Nanjing 211100,China;Yangtze Institute for Conservation and Development,Hohai University,Nanjing 211100,China)
出处
《水利经济》
2023年第4期1-8,14,102,共10页
Journal of Economics of Water Resources
基金
国家社会科学基金重点项目(19AGL023)。
关键词
贸易隐含碳
低碳贸易竞争力
高碳制造业
碳关税
carbon embodied in trade
low-carbon trade competitiveness
high-carbon manufacturing sector
carbon tariff
