摘要
在乡村旅游和城镇化的影响下,外部市场活动频繁介入到传统村落场域,村落敏感性和脆弱性加剧。基于产业系统风险构成,以黄山市歙县148个传统村落为例,按照“风险扰动—适应过程—适应结果”的纽带因果关系构建贝叶斯网络模型,设定高、中、低3种风险模拟情景,预测分析不同情景下传统村落的风险适应机制,结合关键驱动因子探讨适应优化的决策建议。主要研究结论如下:1)歙县传统村落产业系统风险大多处于中高等级,空间上呈现一定的优势集聚;2)低风险情景下,传统村落生态文化资源得到有效保护利用,应对能力和学习自组织能力作用较大,建议现状低风险村落发挥内外联动机制,合力打造区域旅游品牌;3)中风险情景下,传统村落表现为经济发展缓慢但社会组织基础稳定,学习自组织能力和缓冲能力影响较大,建议现状中风险村落完善各项设施配套,激活可持续内生动力;4)高风险情景下,传统村落产业发展面临困境,风险应对机制和再生产逻辑失去了必要的社会基础,建议现状高风险村落将保护修复作为首要任务,加强外部力量的有效干预。运用贝叶斯网络方法评估传统村落产业系统风险,可加深现有研究对传统村落风险适应主体多元化、过程复杂化以及不确定性影响因素动态化的认识,为传统村落产业转型和风险长效治理提供新的思路与理论借鉴。
Owing to the effects of rural tourism and urbanization,the frequent participation of external market activities in traditional villages has increased the sensitivity and fragility of villages.This study constructs a Bayesian network model for systemic risk adaptation in traditional village industries by selecting relevant driving factors based on the nexus causality of"risk perturbation-adaptation process-adaptation outcome,"using 148 Traditional Villages in She Xian,Huangshan as the experimental sample.Through simulations of adaptation under low-,medium-,and high-risk scenarios,the relationship and degree of influence between the drivers in the network model were quantified,and the adaptation mechanisms of the risk of the traditional village industry system were predicted and analyzed.Finally,ideal development methods for the current traditional villages in She Xian were proposed using the selected primary drivers.The primary findings of the study are as follows:1)Most of the traditional villages in She Xian are in the middle to high level of industrial system risk,and show a certain advantageous concentration in space.2)Under the low risk scenario,the ecological and cultural resources of traditional villages are effectively protected and utilized.The allocation of all parts of the industrial system is coordinated,and the ability to adapt and self-organize plays a greater role in adaptive capacity.Key traditional village subjects should be linked internally and externally in future endeavors,and joint efforts should be to made build regional tourism brands.3)Under the medium risk scenario,traditional villages have slow economic development but stable social organization base,wherein the adaptive capacity of learning self-organization and buffering capacity have a greater impact.Traditional villages with medium risk should concentrate on activating the internal dynamics of villages and improving public services and infrastructure.4)Under the high risk scenario,traditional villages face difficulties in industrial development and that the risk-coping mechanisms and reproduction logic of traditional villages lack the requisite social foundation.It is therefore vital to make conservation and restoration a top priority and strengthen the intervention of external factors for high-risk villages.The incorporation of Bayesian network theory into the risk assessment of traditional villages can improve current understanding of the diversity and complexity of traditional village risk adaptation process subjects and the dynamics of uncertainty influencing factors,thereby providing new ideas and theoretical references for Industrial transformation and long-term risk management of traditional villages in similar regions.
作者
储金龙
滕璐
李久林
杨宣宣
Chu Jinlong;Teng Lu;Li Jiulin;Yang Xuanxuan(School of Architecture and Planning,Anhui Jianzhu University,Hefei 230601,China;Collaborative Innovation Center for Urbanization Construction,Hefei 230601,China)
出处
《热带地理》
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第8期1611-1624,共14页
Tropical Geography
基金
安徽省哲学社会科学规划项目“徽州传统村落复杂性认知与空间适应演进研究”(AHSKQ2021D77)。
关键词
产业系统风险
贝叶斯网络
传统村落
多情景模拟
歙县
industrial system risk
Bayesian networks
traditional villages
multi-scenario simulation
She Xian
