摘要
目的分析2015—2020年甘肃省肾综合征出血热(HFRS)流行特征及空间分布规律,探测发病聚集区域,为制定疫情防控措施提供参考依据。方法建立2015—2020年甘肃省HFRS病例数据库,利用ArcGIS 10.5软件和SaTScan 9.6软件进行三维趋势和时空扫描分析。结果2015—2020年HFRS报告发病数663例,死亡1例,年均报告发病率为0.42/10万;40~60岁年龄段病例数最多,男女性别比为1.64∶1,职业以农民(64.71%)和牧民(17.65%)为主;有春夏季和秋冬季两个发病高峰。三维趋势分析显示,HFRS发病总体分布,由南向北逐渐降低,东西方向呈现明显的中间高两边低的倒U形趋势。时空扫描分析结果显示,2018—2020年甘肃省HFRS发病率存在时空聚集性,聚集区位于甘肃省中部以南及南部地区的11个县(市)。结论2015—2020年甘肃省HFRS存在流行和时空聚集性,春夏季和秋冬季高发,青壮年农牧民为主要发病人群,高发地区为甘肃省中部以南及南部地区的部分县(市),并有扩散的趋势,应加强监测,制定和落实有针对性的防控措施。
Objective To analyze the epidemiological and spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome(HFRS)in Gansu from 2015 to 2020,and to provide evidence for the prevention and control of the disease.Methods A database of the diseases in Gansu from 2015 to 2020 was established by using geographical information system.ArcGIS 10.5 and SaTScan 9.6 were used for the trend surface analysis and space-time scanning analysis of HFRS.Results 663 cases of HFRS were reported,and 1 patient died from 2015 to 2020.The annual incidence rate was 0.42 per 100000.The cases were mainly distributed in age group 40–60,and the male to female ratio was 1.64∶1.Most cases were farmers and herdsmen.Spring-summer and autumn-winter were the incidence peak seasons.The trend surface analysis showed that the incidence of HFRS decreased gradually from south to north in Gansu,and an obvious inverted U type curve could reflect the distribution from east to west.Space-time clustering showed that there existed spatial and space-time cluster of the diseases in Gansu from 2018 to 2020.The gathering areas were located in 11 counties(cities)in the southern region and south of central part of Gansu Province.Conclusion The incidence of HFRS had obviously spatial clustering characteristic.Spring-summer and autumn-winter were the incidence peak seasons.Young and middle-aged farmers and herdsmen appeared the main risk groups.The high-high cluster of HFRS in the southern region and south of central part of Gansu province,and there was a trend of diffusion.Monitoring in key areas should be strengthened,and targeted prevention and control measures should be carried out.
作者
魏孔福
张宏
刘新凤
成瑶
苟发香
李慧
Wei Kongfu;Zhang Hong;Liu Xinfeng;Cheng Yao;Gou Faxiang;Li Hui(Gansu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Lanzhou 730000,Gansu,China)
出处
《疾病监测》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第7期831-834,共4页
Disease Surveillance
基金
甘肃省科技计划资助(No.22JR11RA187)。
关键词
肾综合征出血热
趋势分析
空间自相关分析
时空聚集性
Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome
Trend analysis
Spatial autocorrelation analysis
Space-time clustering
