摘要
本文在对主要经济体外部失衡进行测算的基础上,量化了金融调整渠道和贸易调整渠道对外部失衡调整的重要性,并基于PVAR的估计结果验证了一国低于趋势水平的负向外部失衡需要未来净出口增长上升或预期未来更高的净外部资产收益率来进行弥补。方差分解结果表明,金融渠道和贸易渠道在外部失衡调整中均发挥了重要作用,前者解释了约46.23%外部失衡指标的动态变化,后者则为53.77%,金融调整渠道作为一种新型调整渠道对外部失衡动态调整的重要性愈发凸显。进一步研究发现,中国未预期的估值损失比例较大,外部头寸的估值损失随着未预期风险事件的增加而加大。
This paper quantified the importance of financial adjustment and trade ad-justment channel to the adjustment of external imbalance based on the measurement of the external imbalance of major economies.The estimation based on PVAR verifies that nega-tive external imbalance below the trend level will require to be compensated by future growth in net exports or a higher return on net external assets expected in the future.The variance decomposition reveals that both financial channel and trade channel play an im-portant role in the adjustment,which can explain about 46.23%and 53.77%of the dy-namic changes in external imbalance respectively.As a new type of adjustment channel,the relative contribution of financial adjustment channel to external imbalance adjustment is increasing.Further research shows that the proportion of unexpected valuation losses in China is large,and the valuation losses of external asset position aggravate with the in-crease of unexpected risk events.
作者
汪青
陆茸
WANG Qing;LU Rong(School of International Economics and Trade,Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics,Nanchang,Jiangxi,330013;College of Marxism,Sichuan University,Chengdu,Sichuan,611130)
基金
国家社会科学基金青年项目“平台经济的运行机制及演进趋势研究”(22CKS049)。
关键词
金融调整渠道
外部失衡
国际投资头寸
Financial Adjustment Channel
External Imbalance
International In-vestment Position
