摘要
国家热带雨林公园内地形陡峭,地质灾害频发,开展国家热带雨林公园地质灾害易发性评价对减少地质灾害风险具有重要意义。以海南省保亭县为研究区,选取断裂、高程变异系数、剖面曲率、NDVI指数、水系和道路作为评价因子,分别采用确定性系数模型(CF)、确定性系数与逻辑回归耦合模型(CF-LR)、确定性系数与层次分析法耦合模型(CF-AHP)对研究区进行地质灾害易发性评价与精度分析。结果显示,地形地貌对地质灾害的发育具有控制作用,地质灾害受断裂、公路和水系分布影响明显;三种模型均有较高的准确性,其中确定性系数与逻辑回归耦合模型(CFLR)相对更高,是一种地质灾害易发性评价可靠性高的模型。
The national tropical forest park has steep topography and geological disasters occur frequently.It is of great significance to evaluate the vulnerability of national tropical forest park to geological disasters for risk reduction.Taking Baoting County,Hainan Province as the study area,the fault,elevation variation coefficient,profile curvature,NDVI index,water system and road were selected as evaluation factors.The deterministic coefficient model(CF),the coupling model of deterministic coefficient and logistic regression(CF-LR),and the coupling model of deterministic coefficient and analytic hierarchy process(CF-AHP)were used to evaluate the vulnerability of geological disasters and its accuracy of the study area.The result shows that the topography controls function to the development of geological disasters,and geological disasters influenced by fracture,highway and water distribution are obvious.All the three models have high accuracy(highest for CF-LR),which is a highly reliable model for the evaluation of geological hazard susceptibility.
作者
李信
薛桂澄
夏南
柳长柱
杨永鹏
马波
LI Xin;XUE Guicheng;XIA Nan;LIU Changzhu;YANG Yongpeng;MA Bo(Hainan Key Laboratory of Marine Geology Resources and Environment,Haikou,Hainan 570206,China;Hainan Geological Survey Institute,Haikou,Hainan 570206,China;Hainan Institute of Mineral Resources Exploration,Haikou,Hainan 570206,China)
出处
《现代地质》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第4期1033-1043,共11页
Geoscience
基金
海南省海洋地质资源与环境重点实验室重点课题(22-HNHYDZZYHJKF020)
海南省自然科学基金项目(421RC664)。
关键词
确定性系数
逻辑回归
层次分析
易发性
地质灾害
海南保亭
deterministic coefficient method
logistic regression
AHP
susceptibility
geological hazard
Baoting County,Hainan Province
