摘要
A record-breaking precipitation event,with a maximum 24-h(1-h)precipitation of 624 mm(201.9 mm)observed at Zhengzhou Weather Station,occurred in Henan Province,China,in July 2021.However,all global operational forecast models failed to predict the intensity and location of maximum precipitation for this event.The unexpected heavy rainfall caused 398 deaths and 120.06 billion RMB of economic losses.The high-societal-impact of this event has drawn much attention from the research community.This article provides a research review of the event from the perspectives of observations,analysis,dynamics,predictability,and the connection with climate warming and urbanization.Global reanalysis data show that there was an anomalous large-scale circulation pattern that resulted in abundant moisture supply to the region of interest.Three mesoscale systems(a mesoscale low pressure system,a barrier jet,and downslope gravity current)were found by recent high-resolution model simulation and data assimilation studies to have contributed to the local intensification of the rainstorm.Furthermore,observational analysis has suggested that an abrupt increase in graupel through microphysical processes after the sequential merging of three convective cells contributed to the record-breaking precipitation.Although these findings have aided in our understanding of the extreme rainfall event,preliminary analysis indicated that the practical predictability of the extreme rainfall for this event was rather low.The contrary influences of climate warming and urbanization on precipitation extremes as revealed by two studies could add further challenges to the predictability.We conclude that data sharing and collaboration between meteorological and hydrological researchers will be crucial in future research on high-impact weather events.
基金
supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42030607)
2022 Open Research Program of the Chinese State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather.
