摘要
人口是国家繁荣昌盛的“基本盘”。基于“基础设施-经济环境-生态环境-公共服务-不可抗力因素”的城市生育环境分析框架,以2019~2020年中国省会城市(直辖市、港澳台除外)的数据,运用变异系数-TOPSIS模型和fsQCA方法,从组态视角解析了我国省会城市生育环境与人口增长的复杂因果关系。研究发现:(1)单个城市生育环境因素并不构成高人口增长的必要条件,但生态环境对人口增长发挥着更关键的作用。(2)在无不可抗力因素的影响下,驱动高人口增长的城市生育环境组态有3种类型,分别是环境哺育型、经济刺激型、经济-生态双重驱动型;在不可抗力因素的影响下,驱动高人口增长的城市生育环境组态仅有1种类型,经济-生态双重驱动型。(3)进一步分析发现,不可抗力因素并非直接影响人口增长的核心条件,但在其持续影响下,生育愈发悲观。(4)导致城市非高人口增长的4个组态均缺乏经济环境和生态环境作为核心条件。文章验证了驱动城市高人口增长的等效组态路径,明确了生态环境等因素存在差异激励效应。
The population is the“basic plate”for the prosperity of the country.Based on the“infrastructure-econom-ic environment-ecological environment-public services-force”majeure factor urban fertility environment analysis framework,we analyzed the fertility environment and population growth in China’s provincial capitals from a histologi-cal perspective using the coefficient of variation-TOPSIS and fsQCA methods with data for 2019~2020 for Chinese provincial capitals(except municipalities directly under the Central Government,Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan).The complex causal relationship between fertility environment and population growth in provincial capitals in China is ana-lyzed from a group perspective.The study finds that(1)individual urban fertility environment factors do not constitute a necessary condition for high population growth,but the ecological environment plays a more critical role in population growth.(2)Under the influence of force majeure factors,there are three types of urban fertility environment groups that drive high population growth,namely,environmental nurturing,economic stimulation,and economic-ecological dual-drive;under the influence of force majeure factors,there is only one type of urban fertility environment group that drives high population growth,economic-ecological dual-drive.(3)Further analysis reveals that force majeure factors are not the core conditions directly affecting population growth,but fertility becomes increasingly pessimistic under their con-tinuous influence.(4)All four groups leading to non-high urban population growth lacked economic environment and ecological environment as core conditions.The article verifies the equivalent grouping paths driving urban high popula-tion growth and clarifies the existence of differential incentive effects of factors such as ecological environment.
作者
陈洪飞
牛东晓
黄顺春
CHEN Hong-fei;NIU Dong-xiao;HUANG Shun-chun(School of Economics and Management,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206,China;School of Economics and Management,Jiangxi University of Science and Technology,Ganzhou 341000,China)
出处
《西北人口》
CSSCI
北大核心
2023年第5期27-43,共17页
Northwest Population Journal
关键词
城市生育环境
人口增长
分析框架
模糊集定性比较分析
组态路径
Urban Fertility Environment
Population Growth
Analysis Framework
Qualitative Comparative Analy-sis of Fuzzy Sets
Configuration Path
