摘要
中国化工行业处于高速增长阶段,为实现高质量发展,化工生产商需要精准研判产品市场景气度。聚乙烯、聚丙烯等聚烯烃产品属于传统大宗化工品,产量大、需求广、市场历史数据丰富,挖掘这两种产品的价格和利润逻辑具有重要意义,且可行性强。为更加准确分析并预测聚乙烯和聚丙烯的年度价格连续走势,从上游原料成本、产品供需规模等数据出发,建立了一套数据模型,梳理出与这两种产品价格关联性较强的6个影响因素,利用随机森林模型回归了近年价格,并预测了未来3年利润,挖掘聚乙烯和聚丙烯价格逻辑的异同点,最终根据模型结论,预计聚烯烃产品利润和原油价格之间将维持明显的负相关关系,且在相同油价水平下聚乙烯盈利优于聚丙烯。
China’s chemical sector is rapidly expanding.Chemical firms must effectively assess the prosperity of the product market in order to accomplish high-quality development.Polyolefins,such as polyethylene and polypropylene,are typical bulk chemicals with a high output,widespread demand,and a wealth of market history.Mining the pricing and profit logic of these two items is extremely important and feasible.In order to more accurately analyze and predict the continuous annual price trend of polyethylene and polypropylene,a set of data models was established,and six influencing factors with strong correlation with the prices of these two products were sorted out,beginning with the upstream raw material cost,product supply and demand scale,and so on.Prices for recent years were regressed using a random forest model,and profits for the next three years were anticipated,as well as the parallels and differences in polyethylene and polypropylene pricing rationale were examined.Finally,the model predicts that there would be a large negative connection between the profit of polyolefin products and the price of crude oil,with polyethylene profiting more than polypropylene at the same oil price level.
作者
孙克乙
陈诚
魏海国
李军
陈慧敏
SUN Keyi;CHEN Cheng;WEI Haiguo;LI Jun;CHEN Huimin(PetroChina Planning and Engineering Institute)
出处
《油气与新能源》
2023年第4期60-65,共6页
Petroleum and new energy
基金
中国石油科学研究与技术开发项目《油气产业链优化和运行预警关键技术研究》所属课题《原油及下游产品市场分析预测关键技术研究与应用》(2021DJ7702)。
关键词
聚乙烯
聚丙烯
数据模型
价格逻辑
市场预测
随机森林
Polyethylene
Polypropylene
Data model
Price logic
Market forecast
Random forest
