摘要
为了更加科学地规划岳阳三荷机场改扩建方案,确定机场改扩建规模,需要对岳阳三荷机场2030年货邮吞吐量进行预测。本文选取计量经济法、比照法、基于熵权法的类比预测法和客带货指标法等四种方法,深入分析采集的资料和数据样本,得到岳阳三荷机场目标年的机场货邮吞吐量预测值。通过对以上四种方法预测值的分析发现,岳阳三荷机场2030年货邮吞吐量将达到6.5万t,考虑到岳阳经济的可持续发展和预测的偏差性,三荷机场改扩建规模建议按机场货邮吞吐量7万t目标设计。
In order to plan the reconstruction and expansion of Yueyang Sanhe Airport more scientifically and determine the scale of the reconstruction and expansion,it is necessary to forecast the cargo throughput of Yueyang Sanhe Airport in 2030.This paper selects econometric method,comparison method,analogy prediction method based on the Entropy Weight Method,and passenger-cargo index method to analyze the collected data and data samples to get the predicted value of the cargo throughput of Yueyang Sanhe Airport in the target year.Through the analysis of the predicted values of the above four methods,it is found that the cargo throughput of Yueyang Sanhe Airport will reach 65,000 tons in 2030.In consideration of the sustainable development of Yueyang's economy and the deviation of the forecast,it is suggested that the reconstruction and expansion scale of Sanhe Airport shoud be designed with a target of 70,000 tons of airport cargo throughput.
作者
李锋
龙晨
邢碧滢
LI Feng;LONG Chen;XING Bi-ying(School of Business and Logistics,Yueyang Vocational Technical College,Yueyang,Hunan 414000;Yueyang Modern Logistics Industry Development Research Institute,Yueyang,Hunan 414000)
出处
《岳阳职业技术学院学报》
2023年第4期51-57,共7页
Journal of Yueyang Vocational and Technical College
基金
2021年岳阳三荷机场委托横向课题“岳阳三荷机场货运枢纽建设专题论证报告(2022—2030)”(yyzyshjc21-918)。
关键词
机场改扩建
货邮吞吐量
预测
airport reconstruction and expansion
cargo throughput
forecast
