摘要
筛选了2009—2022年31个省份的面板数据,通过工具变量法以及门槛模型对人口老龄化负向冲击地方财政可持续性及其异质性展开分析,并对养老金横向失衡地区的财政可持续性受到人口老龄化程度削弱做了进一步探讨。得到如下研究结论:首先,人口老龄化对地方财政可持续性的冲击存在较为显著的区域异质性。其次,在养老金失衡向上偏离地区间,人口老龄化冲击地方财政可持续性的过程中,纵向的养老保障财政转移支付发挥了正向调节作用,横向的养老保障财政转移支付发挥的正向调节作用则有待观察;养老金失衡向下偏离地区间,人口老龄化冲击地方财政可持续性的过程中,横向与纵向的养老保障财政转移支付均发挥了正向调节作用。最后在研究结论的基础上提出了相应的政策建议。
This study selects the panel data of 31 provinces and cities from 2009 to 2022,analyzes the negative impact of population aging on local fiscal sustainability and its heterogeneity through instrumental variable method and threshold model,and further discusses the weakening of fiscal sustainability under the impact of population aging in areas with pension horizontal imbalance.The conclusions are as follows:Firstly,the impact of population aging on local fiscal sustainability has significant regional heterogeneity.Second,among the regions with upward deviation of pension imbalances,in the process of the impact of population aging on local fiscal sustainability,the fiscal transfer payments of vertical pension security play a positive regulatory role,and the positive regulatory role of the fiscal transfer payments of horizontal pension security remains to be seen.Among the regions with downward deviation of pension imbalance,in the process of the impact of population aging on local fiscal sustainability,both the horizontal and vertical financial transfer payment of pension security plays a positive regulatory role.Finally,based on the research conclusions,corresponding policy recommendations are put forward.
作者
唐强
TANG Qiang(School of Accounting and Finance,Yantai College of Technology,Yantai 264003,China)
出处
《云南财经大学学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2023年第9期21-32,共12页
Journal of Yunnan University of Finance and Economics
