摘要
Tropical cyclone(TC)activities in the North Indian Ocean(NIO)peak in May during the pre-monsoon period,but the TC frequency shows obvious inter-annual variations.By conducting statistical analysis and dynamic diagnosis of long-term data from 1948 to 2016,the relationship between the inter-annual variations of Indian Ocean SST and NIO TC genesis frequency in May is analyzed in this paper.Furthermore,the potential mechanism concerning the effect of SST anomaly on TC frequency is also investigated.The findings are as follows:1)there is a broadly consistent negative correlation between NIO TC frequency in May and SST in the Indian Ocean from March to May,with the key influencing area located in the southwestern Indian Ocean(SWIO);2)the anomalies of SST in SWIO(SWIO-SST)are closely related to a teleconnection pattern surrounding the Indian Ocean,which can significantly modulate the high-level divergence,mid-level vertical motion and other related environmental factors and ultimately influence the formation of TCs over the NIO;3)the increasing trend of SWIO-SST may play an essential role in the downward trend of NIO TC frequency over the past 69 years.
作者
陈艳
晏红明
陶云
杨坤琳
王梦秋
CHEN Yan;YAN Hong-ming;TAO Yun;YANG Kun-lin;WANG Meng-qiu(Yunnan Institute of Meteorological Sciences,Kunming 650034 China;Research Centre for Disastrous Weather in Hengduan Mountains&Low-latitude Plateau,CMA,Kunming 650034 China;Yunnan Climate Centre,Kunming 650034 China;Meteorological Bureau of Dali,Dali,Yunnan 671000 China;Meteorological Observatory of Chengjiang County,Yuxi,Yunnan 652599 China)
基金
National Natural Science Foundation of China(41965005,41790471,42075013)
Key R&D Plan of Yunnan Province Science and Technology Department(202203AC100006)
National Natural Science Foundation of Yunnan Province(202201AS070069)。
