摘要
为揭示船舶在追越过程中碰撞危险演化特征,提出一种基于情景反演的碰撞风险推理方法。基于追越事故案例中记录的船舶碰撞过程的动态信息,反演船舶追越过程中碰撞危险信息;引入负指数函数,结合船舶属性,通过最近会遇距离(Distance of Closest Point of Approach,d_(CPA))与两船到达最近会遇距离的时间(Time to Closest Point of Approach,t_(CPA))无因次化,确立船舶会遇的碰撞危险度(Collision Risk Index,I_(CR)),运用灰云推理模型,提出时间维度下追越两船的碰撞风险推理(Potential Collision Risk,P_(CR));结合多起案例反演数据,得出船舶追越过程中P_(CR)特征。结果表明:船舶追越依次经过碰撞危险、紧迫局面和紧迫危险等3个阶段,在时间节点上有一定稳定性特征,对应的P_(CR)均值分别为0.3491、0.5575和0.7771;船舶左舷追越的P_(CR)值略大于右舷追越;让路船的P_(CR)值感知也略大于直航船。基于情景反演的碰撞风险推理方法能反映会遇过程中两船实时的碰撞风险,为驾驶员实施精细化避碰行动提供有效理论支撑。
A novel collision risk inference method based on case scenario inversion is introduced to study the evolution of the accident.A track calculation and two-dimensional interpolation algorithm is developed to invert the overtaking process and the development of collision scenario according to the dynamic information collected during the whole process of the accident.The virtually repeated process is analyzed and the evolution of collision criteria is examined.A negative exponential function is introduced to calculate the I_(CR)(Collision Risk Index)that comprehensively indicates the degree of collision danger.A dimensionless collision risk index is defined to comprehensively represent the status of d_(CPA)(Distance of Closest Point of Approach),t_(CPA)(Time to Closest Point of Approach)and the parameters of both ships.A grey cloud inference model is developed.28 samples of ship overtaking accidents are examined with the model.The following findings are interesting:in the course of ship overtaking,an accident,if happens,will develop in three stages,that is,collision risk,close situation and immediate danger;the time duration of each stage are almost the same for all the accidents examined;the P_(CR)(Potential Collision Risks)for the three stages are 0.3491,0.5575 and 0.7771 in average respectively.
作者
朱清华
胡甚平
吴建军
王发根
陈炎
ZHU Qinghua;HU Shenping;WU Jianjun;WANG Fagen;CHEN Yan(Merchant Marine College,Shanghai Maritime University,Shanghai 201306,China)
出处
《中国航海》
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第3期29-35,共7页
Navigation of China
基金
国家重点研发计划(21YFC2801005)
国家自然科学基金(52272353)。
关键词
水路运输
碰撞事故
船舶追越
情景反演
灰云模型
碰撞风险推理值
waterway transport
collision accident
ship overtaking
scenario inversion
grey cloud model
potential collision risk
