摘要
为探究京津冀城市群防灾韧性的时空演化,基于2010—2020年京津冀城市群13个城市的防灾韧性评估结果,应用Kernel密度估计方法、空间自相关模型、收敛检验法以及Dagum基尼系数法,对不同时期京津冀城市群防灾韧性水平时空动态演进分布格局及地区差异进行分析。结果显示:2010—2020年京津冀城市群防灾韧性水平总体呈现上升趋势;但在发展过程中,各地区间的防灾韧性水平差距也逐渐增大,河北省的防灾韧性水平较低且增长较缓慢,与北京市和天津市有较大差距;区域整体呈现出非均衡发展特征,不存在显著的集聚与收敛特征,未来还需不断加强区域的协调发展。
Based on results of disaster prevention resilience assessment,and in order to enplore the spatio-temporal evolution of the resilience in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration,the Kernel density estimation method,spatial autocorrelation model,convergence test method and Dagum Gini coefficient method were employed to analyze the spatio-temporal dynamic evolution distribution pattern and regional differences of the disaster prevention and resilience in the region in different periods.The results show that the disaster prevention and resilience in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region shows an upward trend from 2010 to 2020.Nevertheless,in the process of development,the gaps in the level of disaster prevention and resilience among different regions have also gradually increased.The level of disaster prevention and resilience in Hebei Province is low and the growth rate is low,and there is still a large gap with Beijing and Tianjin.The region presents the characteristics of unbalanced development.There is no clear clustering or dispersal of disaster resilience in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.There is also a need to continuously strengthen the coordinated development of the region.
作者
王威
于新月
杨佩
马东辉
WANG Wei;YU Xinyue;YANG Pei;MA Donghui(Faculty of Architecture,Civil and Transportation Engineering,Beijing University of Technology,Beijing 100124,China)
出处
《灾害学》
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第4期1-6,共6页
Journal of Catastrophology
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(52278472)
北京市自然科学基金项目(8232004)。
关键词
公共安全
防灾韧性
京津冀城市群
时空演化
收敛性
public safety
disaster prevention resilience
Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration
temporal and spatial evolution
convergence
