摘要
城市扩张导致的城市土地资源紧张,使世界主要城市把向地下拓展空间作为一个主要选项,科学预测地下空间资源需求显得必要而重要。以政府为主体,基于经济学视角,构建了城市地下空间开发利用的理论模型,推导得到影响城市地下空间开发的主要因素。以国内主要一二线城市数据为基础,运用Lasso回归筛选后发现,影响地下空间开发的主要变量有四个:人均地区生产总值、城镇居民百人汽车保有量、城市成交土地均价、第三产业地区生产总值。基于所筛选变量,用灰色神经网络模型对南京市2023年到2030年的地下空间需求进行预测,发现预测量远超出该市城市地下空间开发规划中对地下空间的规划量。因此,南京市城市地下空间规划量亟待调整,需要进一步加大开发力度。
The urban expansion-induced land resource shortage forces major cities in the world to expand underground spaces,which makes it necessary and important to scientifically predict the underground space resource demands.This study aims to build a cost-benefit model for the urban underground space development and utilization from an economic perspective.It then deduces main factors affecting urban underground space demands.Taking major first-and second-tier cities as the basis,this research applies the Lasso regression and figures out four major factors affecting the underground space development:regional GDP per capita,car ownership by every 100 urban residents,average prices of urban land transactions,and regional tertiary industry GDP.Based on the selected variables and the grey neural network model,a prediction is conducted of the underground space demand in Nanjing from 2023 to 2030.It is found that the predicted underground space amount far exceeds that of the planned amount in the urban underground space development.Therefore,it calls for an urgent adjustment to the planned amount of urban underground space in Nanjing.At the same time,it is necessary to further strengthen urban space utilization and development.
作者
徐生钰
许尚磊
崔佳
XU Shengyu;XU Shanglei;CUI Jia(School of Economics and Management,Nanjing University of Science and Technology,Nanjing,Jiangsu,210094)
出处
《南京理工大学学报（社会科学版）》
2023年第5期26-36,共11页
Journal of Nanjing University of Science and Technology：Social Sciences
基金
国家社科基金项目“城市地下空间资源的产权制度建设与市场化配置问题研究”(21BJL049)。
