摘要
针对双碳目标,在全国能源消费预测已有研究基础上,提出了兼顾多层级发展目标约束的南方区域能源电力消费需求预测技术,构建了基准情景、能耗双控情景、碳排放双控情景3种南方区域能源电力消费情景;建立了基于产业分解的多时间尺度负荷特性预测模型,推演了未来南方区域的电力负荷特性。研究结果表明,碳排放双控情景下,南方区域终端能源消费量在2045年前进入达峰平台期,峰值约10亿吨标准煤;终端部门用电量保持合理增长态势,在2025年后进入年均增长率为3%左右的平台期,在2050年后年均增长率进一步下降至1%;受产业结构转型影响,南方区域电力负荷不均衡特性将逐步加大。电力部门承担的减排压力逐步凸显,需要加快南方区域新型电力系统建设,促进能源低碳转型,支撑“双碳”目标实现。
Aiming at carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals,based on the existing research on the national energy consumption forecast,a forecasting technology for energy and electricity consumption demand in the southern region that takes into account the constraints of multi-level development goals is proposed.Three energy and electricity consumption scenarios in the southern region are constructed:the baseline scenario,dual-control of energy consumption scenario,and dual-control of carbon emission scenario.A forecasting method for multi-timescale load characteristics based on industrial decomposition is established,and the future power load characteristics of the southern region are deduced.The result shows that under the dual-control of carbon emission scenario,the terminal energy consumption in the southern region will reach a peak plateau before 2045,with a peak of 1 billion tons of standard coal.Terminal sector electricity consumption maintains a reasonable growth trend,entering a plateau with an average annual growth rate of about 3%after 2025,and further decreasing to 1%after 2050.Affected by the transformation of industrial structure,the fluctuation characteristics of load in the southern region will gradually increase.The pressure on the power sector to reduce emissions has gradually become prominent,and it is necessary to speed up the construction of new power systems in the southern region for promoting the low-carbon energy transformation and supporting the achievement of the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.
作者
卓映君
周保荣
姚文峰
王嘉阳
卢斯煜
ZHUO Yingjun;ZHOU Baorong;YAO Wenfeng;WANG Jiayang;LU Siyu(State Key Laboratory of HVDC,Electric Power Research Institute,CSG,Guangzhou 510663,China)
出处
《南方电网技术》
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第9期132-140,共9页
Southern Power System Technology
基金
国家自然科学基金企业创新发展联合基金项目(U22B6007)
广东省重点领域研发计划项目(2021B0101230004)
中国南方电网有限责任公司新型电力系统创新项目(ZBKJXM20232001)。
关键词
“双碳”目标
南方区域
能源消费
负荷预测
carbon peaking and carbon neutrality target
southern region
energy consumption
load forecast
