摘要
为探究疏散过程中人员行为冲突的演化过程,提高疏散效率,运用演化博弈理论,分析2种典型存在逆行人员场景下的人员疏散行为演化过程,讨论人员密度、事件紧急程度以及个体心理收益对人员合作或竞争策略选择的影响;借助Matlab仿真工具,展示博弈参与者的动态演化过程及参数调整对于双方策略选择的影响。结果表明:在一定约束条件下,存在5个均衡点,分别为(1,0)、(0,1)、(1,1)、(0,0)和一个鞍点。针对不同类型的逆行人员,获得的收益比例不同,但参数对其行为演化的影响趋势是一致的。当正常疏散人员的心理收益、事故的危险程度、逆行人员的额外时间损失增大时,正常疏散人员倾向礼让的策略;当正常疏散人员争抢的成本和逆行人员争抢成功的收益减小时,逆行人员倾向于礼让的策略。
To accurately depict the evolution process of individual behavior conflicts during evacuations and improve evacuation efficiency,the evolutionary game theory was applied to analyze the evolution of evacuation behaviors in two typical scenarios involving contrary movement personnel.The impact of population density,level of emergency severity,and individual psychological gains on the choice of cooperative or competitive strategies by individuals was discussed.The dynamic evolution process of game players and the influence of parameter adjustment on the strategy selection of both sides could be demonstrated with the help of Matlab.The simulation results showed that under certain constraints,there were five equilibrium points which were(1,0),(0,1),(1,1),(0,0),and a saddle point.It is found that different types of retrograde pedestrians benefit from different proportions,but the influencing parameters of their behavior evolution have the same influence trend.When the psychological benefits of regular evacuees,the risk level of the accident,and the additional time loss of counterflow individuals increase,evacuees tend to adopt a yielding strategy.Conversely,when the cost of competition for regular evacuees and the rewards of successful competition for counterflow individuals decrease,the counterflow individuals tend to adopt a yielding strategy.
作者
邓青
周郑
邓立
蒋慧灵
周亮
周正青
DENG Qing;ZHOU Zheng;DENG Li;JIANG Huiling;ZHOU Liang;ZHOU Zhengqing(Research Institute of Macro-Safety Science,University of Science and Technology Beijing,Beijing 100083,China;School of Civil and Resource Engineering,University of Science and Technology Beijing,Beijing 100083,China;Central South Architectural Design Institute Co.,Wuhan Hubei 430071,China;Technical Support Center for Prevention and Control of Disastrous Accidents in Metal Smelting,University of Science and Technology Beijing,Beijing 100083,China)
出处
《中国安全科学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第9期196-203,共8页
China Safety Science Journal
基金
国家自然科学基金资助(72174099,72004113)
国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC1523504)
国家应急管理部科技计划项目(2021XFCX25,2022XFZD05)
河北省重点研发项目(22375419D)。
关键词
逆行人员
演化博弈
稳定性分析
疏散过程
疏散效率
retrograde behavior
evolutionary game
stable analysis
pedestrian evacuation
evacuation efficiency
