摘要
自2018年起,中国开始全面展开对地方政府隐性债务的穿透式监管。监管旨在防止信用过度扩张、加强债务硬约束和防范系统性风险,是落实宏观审慎政策的重要举措。为考察这种宏观审慎措施的经济后果及作用机制,本文构造了隐性债务水平的度量指标,利用复杂网络理论估计了企业传递系统性风险的能力,并展开了一系列实证检验。研究发现,开展穿透式监管后,地方隐性债务水平显著下降。在此基础上,对于监管前隐性债务水平较高的地区,企业风险传染性和特质性风险水平均显著降低,表明隐性债务监管在微观上减少了系统性风险在证券网络中的传染与蔓延。以上微观影响在个股关联性较强、金融风险敏感度较高,以及所处地区金融风险水平高的企业中更为显著。机制分析表明,穿透式监管有效抑制了地方隐性债务盲目扩张,降低了地区信贷约束、信用风险和价格波动风险,进而降低了企业的个股风险传染性和特质性波动。本文研究有助于理解地方债务风险的微观传导效应,并为宏观审慎政策的评估方法提供重要参考。
The rapid growth of local government debt has led to excessive leverage of local finances,increasing the sensitivity of financial institutions to systemic risks.Since 2018,the central government has proposed to strengthen the macro-prudential management systems and begun to conduct penetrating supervision of local hidden debt through investigation and replacement.Macroprudential policies may affect the risk level of listed companies by changing the relation between the government and enterprises and regulating market supply and demand.However,existing literature has not conducted in-depth research on the impact of supervision of local hidden debt on the risk-bearing of local listed companies.This study constructs a measure of hidden debt and finds that after conducting penetrating supervision,local hidden debt has significantly decreased.To examine economic consequences of supervision of enterprises,this study uses complex network theory to construct a risk contagion index and estimates the ability of listed companies to transmit systemic risks.Using data from 2015 to 2020 at the company-year-region level,this study verifies that as for regions with high hidden debt ex-ante,the risk contagion of listed companies has significantly decreased,indicating that supervision of hidden debt has reduced the spread of systemic risks in the securities network.Results are robust after replacing main explanatory variables,eliminating company factors or impacts of contemporaneous events.Crosssectional analysis shows that above effects are more significant in enterprises with strong stock correlations,high financial risk sensitivity,and high regional financial risks.Mechanism analysis shows that penetrating supervision significantly suppresses the expansion of local hidden debt,reduces regional credit constraints,credit risks,and price volatilities,thereby reducing the contagion and idiosyncratic volatility of listed companies.Our innovation lies in the empirical evaluation of macro and micro impacts of supervision of hidden debt.Using the difference-in-difference method,this study alleviates the endogeneity problem of the impact of government debt on enterprises and identifies the mechanism by which macroprudential regulation resolves firm risks.This study enriches the cross-over research between new technologies and accounting by using complex network theory to construct the risk contagion index.This study shows that supervision of hidden debt should focus on budget management,suitability of financial resources,and local debt risks.It is necessary to control governmental debt within the range that the economy could bear,accelerate marketization of local financing platforms,and strengthen PPP projects'compliance management.Local debt risks exist in the distribution across individuals and time for enterprises,and there is a competition relation between local governments and enterprises in financing or credit.Therefore,it is necessary to strengthen competition between local financial markets,promote fair credit allocation,optimize investment boundaries,and regulate regional financing channels.Managers of listed companies should attach great importance to risks at meso and macro levels to prevent systemic risks from spreading through associated networks.
作者
王彦超
吴雨珊
刘芷蕙
白璐
WANG Yan-chao;WU Yu-shan;LIU Zhi-hui;BAI Lu(School of Accountancy,Central University of Finance and Economics;School of Information,Central University of Finance and Economics)
出处
《中国工业经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2023年第8期23-41,共19页
China Industrial Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目“新时代中国特色管制会计制度体系与智能化实践研究”(批准号21&ZD145)
国家自然科学基金优秀青年科学基金项目“结构模式识别与金融股市风险分析”(批准号T2122020)。
关键词
地方隐性债务
穿透式监管
金融风险
复杂网络
local hidden debt
penetrating supervision
financial risks
complex network
