摘要
城乡发展不平衡不充分是我国城乡高质量发展面临的一个突出问题。基于2003—2018年中国156个地级市面板数据,使用耦合协调度模型实证分析我国新型城镇化和乡村振兴耦合协调水平及其时空分异特征,并利用面板向量自回归和面板误差修正模型考察二者的交互影响及动态关系。研究发现:(1)样本期内,我国新型城镇化与乡村振兴之间的耦合协调水平整体偏低,但随时间呈现向更高水平的耦合协调类型稳步优化趋势,空间上则呈现沿海地区城乡耦合协调度始终高于内陆地区。(2)乡村振兴水平的提高在当期就对新型城镇化产生正向影响并且会持续较长时间;新型城镇化对乡村振兴的影响具有时滞性和短期波动性,在长期表现为正向带动作用。(3)异质性分析表明:新型城镇化对乡村振兴发挥的带动作用要强于乡村振兴对新型城镇化的推动作用;相对于低水平发展地区,高水平发展地区的新型城镇化对乡村振兴的带动更强,乡村振兴对新型城镇化的推动作用更弱。
The imbalanced and insufficient development between urban and rural areas is a prominent issue that China faces in achieving high-quality urban-rural development.Based on panel data from 156 prefecture-level cities in China from 2003 to 2018,this study empirically analyzes the coupling coordination level and spatiotemporal differentiation characteristics of the new urbanization and rural revitalization using a coupling coordination degree model.The study also examines the interactive effects and dynamic relationship between the two using panel vector autoregression and panel error correction models.The research found that:①During the sample period,the overall coupling coordination level between new urbanization and rural revitalization in China was relatively low.However,it showed a steady trend towards a higher level of coupling coordination over time.Spatially,the coastal regions consistently had higher levels of rural-urban coupling coordination than the inland regions.②The improvement in rural revitalization has a positive and long-lasting impact on new urbanization in the current period.The impact of new urbanization on rural revitalization exhibits temporal and short-term fluctuations,but in the long run,it has a positive driving effect.③Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the driving effect of new urbanization on rural revitalization is stronger than the promoting effect of rural revitalization on new urbanization.In high-level development areas,new urbanization has a stronger driving effect on rural revitalization,while the promoting effect of rural revitalization on new urbanization is weaker compared to low-level development areas.
作者
薄文广
钱镱
屈建成
谭鑫
BO Wenguang;QIAN Yi;QU Jiancheng;TAN Xin(School of Economics,Nankai University,Tianjin 300071,China;Department of Social and Ecological Civilization,Yunnan Provincial Committee School of The CPC,Kunming 650111,China)
出处
《中国软科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第9期106-116,共11页
China Soft Science
基金
国家社会科学基金重点项目“欠发达地区新型城镇化与乡村振兴协同共进路径研究”(19AJY008)。
关键词
新型城镇化
乡村振兴
耦合协调
交互影响
new urbanization
rural revitalization
coupling coordination
reciprocal effect
