摘要
针对民用飞机部件具有多重失效的特点,提出一种面向多重耗损失效模式的运行风险评估方法。以机队运行失效数据为样本,构建基于混合威布尔分布的多重失效模型,提出基于期望最大(EM)算法的混合威布尔分布参数估计方法,并利用粒子群优化(PSO)算法对EM算法进行优化,提高了参数估计精度;以基于混合威布尔分布的多重失效模型为基础,利用蒙特卡罗仿真的方法提出多重失效模式影响下的机队缺陷飞机数量(DA)预测算法;构建贝叶斯网络模型以分析初因事件发生条件下的不安全后果发生概率(CP),并结合由历史运营经验得到的死亡率(IR)和未检出率(ND),计算总体未纠正机队风险(RT)。实例表明:所提风险评估方法可以直接应用于多重失效模式导致的机队风险评估,所提模型参数估计方法相比极大似然估计和最小二乘估计方法,均方根误差分别降低了80.6%和85.7%。
An operation risk assessment method is proposed for aircraft components with multiple wear-out failure modes.A multiple failure model is constructed using the fleet operating failure data samples and the mixed Weibull distribution.And the parameter estimation method of the mixed Weibull distribution is proposed based on the expectation maximization(EM)algorithm,which has been optimized by using the particle swarm optimization(PSO)algorithm to improve the accuracy of the parameter estimation.In terms of the mixed Weibull distribution-based reliability model,the calculating method for the number of defect airplanes(DA),which is caused by the multiple failure modes,is given via the Monte Carlo simulation method.To determine the Conditional Probability(CP)of dangerous consequences emerging from a certain initial situation,the Bayesian network(BN)is designed.Finally,the total uncorrected fleet risk(RT)is calculated in terms of the injury ratio(IR),the Not Detected probability(ND),the DA value,and the CP value.A case study shows that the proposed risk assessment method can be directly applied in the evaluation of fleet risks caused by multiple failure modes.Furthermore,the root mean squared error of the suggested parameter estimation approach has been decreased by 85.7%and 80.6%,respectively,when compared to the maximum likelihood estimation(MLE)and the least-squares estimation(LSE).
作者
吴雨婷
陆中
宋海靖
周伽
WU Yuting;LU Zhong;SONG Haijing;ZHOU Jia(College of Civil Aviation,Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,Nanjing 211106,China;Reliability Research Center,Chinese Flight Test Establishment,Xi’an 710089,China;Department of Aircraft Maintenance,China Eastern Airlines Jiangsu Ltd,Nanjing 211106,China)
出处
《北京航空航天大学学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第10期2807-2816,共10页
Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics
基金
国家自然科学基金(U1733124)
航空科学基金(20180252002)
民航安全能力建设基金(2021-196)。
关键词
风险评估
多重失效模式
参数估计
期望最大算法
蒙特卡罗仿真
贝叶斯网络
risk assessment
multiple failure modes
parameter estimation
expectation maximization algorithm
Monte Carlo simulation
Bayesian network
