摘要
缅甸在军方重新接管政权两年多来,国内危机持续外溢,在国际上遭受西方制裁等危机。既有文献从军方合法性、反对派动员和大国博弈的角度去解读,但仍难以系统诠释缅甸危机的僵局所在,也即缅甸内部政治互信与国际信任赤字相互叠加的结果。缅甸在政权更迭后,无法由内而外塑造“我群”共识,与国际行为体产生难以调和的认知歧异,继而生成了多重身份危机,包括遭受制裁、难以“重新融入国际社会”的转型身份危机,难以继续融入“东盟大家庭”的地区身份危机,以及与大国关系失衡的中立身份危机。缅甸的国际身份在2011-2020年的转型十年间逐步明晰,而在2021年转型受挫后,外交困局也随之而来。通过案例分析发现,缅甸看守政府改善外交处境的前提是努力确保国际身份清晰化,同步争取外部共识。鉴于中短期内缅甸难以确证转型身份和中立身份并回归“正常国家”,通过“东盟方式”重塑地区身份仍是最不坏的选择。
It has been more than two years since the military took over power in Myanmar,and the domestic crisis continues to spill over,suffering from international crises such as Westemn sanctions.There is debate about the legitimacy of the military,the mobilization of the opposition,and the game of major powers,but it is still difficult to systematically explain the deadlock in the Myanmar crisis.The deadlock is the result of both intermal political mutual trust and an intemational trust deficit.Myanmar's failure to forge a we-identity from the inside out after the change of regime has created ireconcilable cognitive differences with intemational actors.This in tum has created multiple identity crises,such as the transition identity crisis of sanctions and difficulties in reintegrating into the intemational community,the regional identity crisis of dificulties in continuing to integrate into the"ASEAN family",and the neutral identity crisis of imbalance in relations with other major powers.Myanmar's intermational identity gradually became clear during the 2011-2020,i.e.,"democratic transition decade"and an extermal deadlock ensued after the setback in 2021.The case study suggests that the caretaker govemment's efforts to improve foreign relations are largely based on efforts to ensure intermational clarity and build extermal consensus in parallel.In the short to medium term,it will be difficult for Myanmar to confirm its identity of transition and neutrality and retum to a"nomal state",but the"ASEAN way"to reshape Myanmar's regional identity is still a positive option.
作者
张添
ZHANG Tian(Institute of Area Studies,Peking University,Beijing,China)
出处
《东南亚研究》
CSSCI
2023年第4期17-39,154,155,共25页
Southeast Asian Studies
基金
2023年国家社科基金青年项目“东南亚国家代际政治对我国周边安全影响及对策研究”(23CGJ042)。
关键词
国际身份
身份危机
缅甸
军人接权
外交困局
国际社会
Intemational Identity
Identity Crisis
Myanmar
Military Takeover of Power
Diplomatic Dilemma
Intemational Community
