摘要
为科学地评估城市人员密集场所风险,提高城市人员密集场所的安全性。运用扎根理论对25起典型城市人员密集场所事故案例进行三级编码,提取出16个风险因素。在此基础上利用决策实验室分析法(DEMATEL)方法分析16个因素之间的关联特征,应用解释结构模型(ISM)分析风险因素层级特征从而得到多层递阶结构模型,运用交叉影响矩阵相乘法(MICMAC)分析风险因素的属性特征,并绘制出象限图。结果表明:人群扰动行为、人群密度和流动速度、指示标志是城市人员密集场所事故发生的直接原因;管理者应对能力、安保机构及管理状况、安全检查是事故发生的根本原因。研究结果可为城市人员密集区域安全风险有效预警及管控提供有力的参考依据。
To scientifically assess the risk of urban crowded places and improve the safety of urban crowded places.Firstly,25 typical cases of accidents in urban crowded places were coded at three levels using the rooting theory,and 16 risk factors were extracted.On this basis,the decision-making laboratory analysis method(DEMATEL)was used to analyze the correlation characteristics between 16 factors.The interpretative structural model(ISM)was used to analyze the hierarchical characteristics of risk factors to obtain a multi-level hierarchical structure model.The cross-impact matrix multiplication(MICMAC)was used to analyze the attribute characteristics of risk factors and drew a quadrant diagram.The study showed that:crowd disturbance behavior,crowd density and flow rate,and directional signs are the direct causes of accidents in urban crowded places;managerial response capability,security agencies and management status,and safety inspection are the root causes of accidents.The results of the study can provide a strong reference basis for effective early warning and control of safety risks in crowded urban areas.
作者
成连华
李楠
李树刚
CHENG Lianhua;LI Nan;LI Shugang(College of Safety Science and Engineering,Xi′an University of Science and Technology,Xi′an 710054,China;不详)
出处
《武汉理工大学学报（信息与管理工程版）》
CAS
2023年第5期668-674,共7页
Journal of Wuhan University of Technology：Information & Management Engineering
基金
陕西省重点研发项目(2017ZDXM-GY-107).
关键词
城市人员密集场所
扎根理论
风险因素
决策实验室分析法
解释结构模型
urban crowded places
grounded theory
risk factors
decision making trial and evaluation laboratory
interpretative structural modeling
