摘要
农村养老保险制度在经历制度全覆盖后,下一步将进入全面提质增效阶段,这也是“十四五”期间我国社会保障改革的目标之一。城乡居民基础养老金是城乡居民基本养老保险制度待遇端的重要组成,是应对农村人口老龄化的产物,现因其待遇水平“低”而引发社会关注,但关于“是不是真的低”、“应该提升到什么样的水平”等问题尚未形成共识。为此,在构建“标准消费人+消费支出比例法”组合模型,测算出保基本的城乡居民基础养老金待遇水平的基础上,运用方差分析法对我国内地31个省(自治区/直辖市)的城乡居民基础养老金待遇水平进行评估与分析。研究发现:第一,十余年间,各地区城乡居民基础养老金待遇水平不断提升,但地区间的差异也逐渐扩大;第二,目前只有上海、北京的城乡居民基础养老金待遇水平实现了保基本,其余内地29个省(自治区/直辖市)均未实现保基本;第三,和2010年相比,2020年仅有北京、上海、江苏、浙江、广东、西藏、青海7省份的城乡居民基础养老金保障能力没有下降,其余省份不升反降;第四,和东、中部地区相比,未来西部地区更容易实现保基本的制度目标。最后,从统一城乡居民基础养老金认知、单独建制、待遇调整以及财政支持等方面提出未来发展的方向与建议,为各地区优化城乡居民基础养老金待遇提供决策参考与依据。
After experiencing the full coverage of rural pension insurance system,the next step will be to comprehensively improve the quality and efficiency,which is also one of the goals of China’s social security during the 14th Five-Year Plan period.The basic pension for urban and rural residents is an important component of the treatment end of basic old-age insurance system for urban and rural residents,which is the product of the aging of the rural population.It has aroused social concern because of its“low”treatment level,but no consensus has been reached on“whether it is really low and what level it should be raised to”.Therefore,on the basis of constructing the combination model of“standard consumer”plus“consumption expenditure ratio method”and calculating the basic pension level of urban and rural residents,this paper used variance analysis to evaluate and analyze the basic pension level of urban and rural residents in mainland 31 provinces(autonomous regions/municipalities)in China.The findings are as follows.Firstly,the basic pension benefits of urban and rural residents in various regions have continuously improved in the past 10 years,but regional differences have also gradually expanded.Secondly,at present,only Shanghai and Beijing have achieved basic pension benefits for urban and rural residents,while the remaining 29 mainland provinces(autonomous regions/municipalities)have not achieved basic pension benefits.Thirdly,compared to 2010,only seven regions(Beijing,Shanghai,Jiangsu,Zhejiang,Guangdong,Tibet and Qinghai)will not see a decline in the protection capacity of basic pension for urban and rural residents in 2020,while the rest will see a decline rather than a rise.Fourthly,compared with the eastern and central regions,the western region will be more likely to achieve the basic institutional goals in the future.Finally,the paper proposes future development directions and suggestions from the perspectives of unifying the basic pension for urban and rural residents,separate establishment,treatment adjustment and financial support,so as to provide the decision-making reference and basis for optimizing basic pension treatment for urban and rural residents in various regions.
作者
王振振
董克用
WANG Zhenzhen;DONG Keyong(Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs,Rural Economic Research Center,Beijing 100810,China;School of Public Administration,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China)
出处
《人口与经济》
北大核心
2023年第6期1-18,共18页
Population & Economics
基金
教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“促进我国多层次养老保险体系发展研究”(21JZD035)。
关键词
城乡居民基础养老金
保基本
政策评估
发展方向
basic pension insurance for urban and rural residents
guarantee the basic livelihood
policy assessment
development direction
