摘要
【目的】分析江苏省苏州市高新区2004—2021年血吸虫病疫情监测数据,为完善血吸虫病消除策略提供依据。【方法】根据《苏州市血吸虫病、寄生虫病和地方病防治工作意见》和《苏州市血吸虫病、寄生虫病和地方病预防与控制工作技术方案》对2004—2021年血吸虫病人群病情、螺情等进行监测,用Mann-Kendall方法和Joinpoint回归方法分析疫情指标(血清学阳性率、有螺框出现率等)变化趋势,用时间序列分析(指数平滑模型)进行螺情预测。【结果】2004—2021年血吸虫病血清学检查共73680人次,阳性率为0.084%,各年阳性率差异有统计学意义(χ^(2)=70.73,P<0.05),但阳性率无变化趋势;粪检3053人次,未检出阳性。共查出有螺面积70.11 hm^(2),有螺面积呈下降趋势(Z=-1.97,P<0.05);共查螺30093框,有螺框出现率为19.038%,各年有螺框出现率差异有统计学意义(χ^(2)=7203.09,P<0.05)且呈下降趋势(Z=-2.05,P<0.05);查获活螺26296只,活螺密度为0.874只·框-1,活螺密度呈下降趋势(Z=-2.35,P<0.05);共解剖钉螺12391只,未发现阳性钉螺。药物灭螺面积264.60 hm^(2),无变化趋势;环境改造灭螺面积27.77 hm^(2),呈下降趋势(Z=-2.44,P<0.05)。据预测,2022—2026年有螺框出现率和活螺密度较平稳,但有螺面积波动较大且有增加趋势。【结论】该地无血吸虫病本地病例,未检出阳性钉螺,血吸虫病防治成果得到有效巩固,但有螺面积波动较大且有增加趋势,应做好当地钉螺长期监测工作。
[Objective]To analyze the monitoring data of schistosomiasis from 2004 to 2021 in Suzhou New District,Jiangsu Province,and to provide evidence for improving schistosomiasis elimination strategies.[Methods]Following the Opinions on Prevention and Control of Schistosomiasis,Parasitic Diseases and Endemic Diseases in Suzhou and the Technical Plan for Prevention and Control of Schistosomiasis,Parasitic Diseases and Endemic Diseases in Suzhou,the monitoring of schistosomiasis in the population and snail habitats from 2004 to 2021 was conducted.The Mann-Kendall method and Joinpoint regression method were employed to analyze the trend of epidemic indicators(such as seropositive rate,prevalence of snail frames,etc.).Time series analysis(exponential smoothing model)was conducted to predict snail occurrence.[Results]From 2004 to 2021,a total of 73680 people were serologically tested for schistosomiasis,with a positive rate of 0.084%.The seropositivity rate showed statistically significant differences between different years(χ^(2)=70.73,P<0.05),but there was no significant trend over time.In addition,3053 fecal tests were conducted and no positive result was found.The snail habitats covered an area of 70.11 hm^(2) and showed a decreasing trend(Z=−1.97,P<0.05).A total of 30093 frames were surveyed,of which 19.038%contained snails.The difference in the prevalence of snail frames between different years was statistically significant(χ^(2)=7203.09,P<0.05),with a decreasing trend in the prevalence of snail frames(Z=−2.05,P<0.05).A total of 26296 live snails were seized and density of live snails was 0.874 snails per frame,showing a decreasing trend in the density of live snails(Z=−2.35,P<0.05).A total of 12391 snails were dissected and no infected snail was found.The areas treated with molluscicides remained stable at 264.60 hm^(2).An area of 27.77 hm^(2) achieved the goal of snail eradication through environmental modification,with a decreasing trend(Z=−2.44,P<0.05).It is estimated that the prevalence of snail frames and snail density will remain relatively stable from 2022 to 2026,but the snail habitat area will fluctuate significantly,showing an increasing trend.[Conclusion]No indigenous cases of schistosomiasis and no infected snails are reported,indicating the successful consolidation of schistosomiasis prevention and control measures.However,the snail habitat area fluctuates greatly with an increasing trend,suggesting the need for long-term Oncomelania snail monitoring in local areas.
作者
归国平
程羽珩
郭锋
胡燕红
吕大兵
施雯慧
GUI Guoping;CHENG Yuheng;GUO Feng;HU Yanhong;LYU Dabing;SHI Wenhui(Suzhou New District(Huqiu District)Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Suzhou,Jiangsu 215011,China;Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics,School of Public Health,Suzhou University,Suzhou,Jiangsu 215127,China;Adverse Reaction Monitoring Center for Family Planning Medicines and Utensils of National Health Commision/Jiangsu Health Development Research Center,Nanjing,Jiangsu 210036,China)
出处
《上海预防医学》
CAS
2023年第9期857-862,共6页
Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(81971957)
国家卫生健康委计划生育药具不良反应监测中心/江苏省卫生健康发展研究中心开放课题(JSHD2021037)。
