摘要
为了对高寒地区输水工程冬季安全运行进行客观评价,及时掌握工程实时运行状态,以北疆某输水工程渠首段为例,建立寒区输水工程冬季安全运行评价指标体系,采用熵值法确定各指标权重,同时采用集对分析法构建冬季安全运行评价模型;随后,通过计算多元联系数和减法集对势对各级指标进行不确定分析,以确定该输水工程的安全运行等级;最后,将计算结果与采用模糊评价法得出的评价结果进行比较。结果显示:采用集对分析法计算的结果与模糊评价法完全一致,属于较安全等级,与实际情况吻合,表明基于集对分析法的安全评价模型有较好的准确性和合理性。此外,通过减法集对势的计算可以得出整个工程评价系统趋于同势,处于健康状态,发展趋势良好;而明渠的排冰设施指标风险性最大,处于病态,具有较大的脆弱性,是渠道冬季安全运行主要调控和维护的对象,需要对其进行加强防护。采用集对分析法评价可以为寒区输水工程冬季安全运行管理提供一定的科学依据和技术支持。
To objectively evaluate the safety operation of a water conveyance project in winter in a cold region and grasp the realtime operational status of the project in time,taking a water conveyance project in northern Xinjiang as an example,this paper establishes an evaluation index system for the safety operation of water conveyance project in cold areas during the ice age.It includes two secondary indexes of open channel and gate and their grading indexes.The entropy method is used to determine the weight of each index.Besides,the set pair analysis method is used to establish the winter safety operation evaluation model.Then,through the calculation of multiple connection degrees and potential values of the subtraction set,the uncertainty analysis of each index is carried out to determine the safety operation level base on the classification of safety operation grade of each evaluation index.Finally,the calculation results are compared with the evaluation results obtained by the fuzzy evaluation method.The results show that the evaluation results based on the set pair analysis method are almost consistent with the fuzzy evaluation method,belonging to a relatively safe level and consistent with the actual situation.The model has good accuracy and rationality.Through the analysis of potential values of the subtraction set and the comparison of uncertainty factors,it can be concluded that the evaluation system of the whole project tends to be the same as the potential,the development trend is good,and the index of ice discharge facilities has the greatest risk,which is in an ill condition and has great fragility.Therefore,it is the main control and maintenance object of the safety operation of the channel in winter,which needs to be strengthened.The evaluation method can provide a scientific basis and technical support for the safety operation management of water conveyance projects in cold areas during ice ages.
作者
杨德明
练继建
赵新
YANG Deming;LIAN Jijian;ZHAO Xin(State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300072,China;School of Civil Engineering,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300350,China)
出处
《安全与环境学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第9期3018-3028,共11页
Journal of Safety and Environment
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(51909186,U20A20316)。
关键词
安全工程
集对分析法
输水工程
冬季安全
多元联系数
集对势
safety engineering
set pair analysis
water conveyance project
ice age safety operation
multivariate correlation degree
set pair situation
