摘要
针对城市燃气管道风险评价时存在各因素相互作用会影响评价结果的问题,通过分析以往燃气事故发生原因、行业专家意见和相关规范标准,筛选整理出4项一级指标和19项二级指标,建立城市燃气管道风险评价指标体系。为保证城市燃气管道风险评价的准确性,引入灰色理论与决策试验法(Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory,DEMATEL)。首先,基于此方法分析各因素之间的影响关系;然后,得出各指标因素在评价指标体系中的重要程度;最后,对中心度进行归一化处理得到各影响因素的权重,结合模糊综合评价的方法对燃气管道进行风险评价。结果表明:阴极保护失效、管道运行年限、管道保护装置和人为破坏是导致燃气管道失效最重要的4个因素,燃气管道的风险等级为中等;分析结果与实际工程相吻合,证明该方法能够有效评估燃气管道风险。
To deal with the impacts of the interaction of various factors on the evaluation results in the risk evaluation of urban gas pipelines,based on the analysis of the causes of previous gas accidents,industry experts'opinions,relevant norms and standards,this paper selected four first-level indicators and 19 second-level indicators and built a risk evaluation index system for urban gas pipelines.To ensure the accuracy of urban gas pipeline risk assessment,grey theory and the Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory(DEMATEL)method were introduced.DEMATEL method can effectively analyze the relationship between different factors in a complex system,but it would be easily affected by human subjective factors,and the grey theory method can be used to reduce the influence of subjective factors.The influence relationship between various factors was first analyzed based on this method.Then,the significance of each index factor in the evaluation index system was obtained.The centrality was further normalized to get the weight of each influencing factor,using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to complete the risk assessment of gas pipelines.The results show that cathodic protection failure,pipeline service life,pipeline protection device,and artificial damage are the four most important factors.The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation vector was obtained by calculation.According to the maximum membership principle of the comprehensive fuzzy vector,its maximum value of 0.314 corresponds to a moderate risk level for urban gas pipelines,indicating that the possibility of gas pipeline failure is comparatively high,and corresponding measures should be taken to reduce the probability of pipeline failure.The analysis results are consistent with the actual project.Compared with the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method in terms of the theoretical method,operation difficulty,and the accuracy of the results,it is proved that this method can effectively evaluate the risk of gas pipelines.
作者
张鹏
杨宗强
沈豪
游亚菲
潘灏航
ZHANG Peng;YANG Zongqiang;SHEN Hao;YOU Yafei;PAN Haohang(School of Civil EngineeringgandGeomatics,Southwest Petroleum University,Chengdu 610500,China)
出处
《安全与环境学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第9期3036-3043,共8页
Journal of Safety and Environment
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(50974105)
中国工程院重大咨询研究项目(2011-ZD-20)
高校学校博士学科点专项科研基金项目(20105121110003)。
关键词
安全工程
城市燃气管道
灰色理论
决策试验法(DEMATEL)
模糊综合评价
safety engineering
urban gas pipeline
grey theory
Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory(DEMATEL)
fuzzy comprehensive evaluation
