摘要
利用辽宁省国家站和区域自动站降水观测资料、多普勒天气雷达、风廓线雷达和欧洲中心ERA5逐小时再分析资料,对2022年6月25日傍晚至夜间沈阳地区出现的极端致灾雷暴大风天气的形成机理和数值模式的预报效果进行分析。结果表明:此次极端风雹天气过程发生在东北冷涡背景下,切变线和地面辐合线共同触发对流风暴的生成,强垂直风切变和不稳定层结使得风雹天气发展增强。此次强风雹过程中多个强对流单体逐渐发展,合并增强后呈现为弓形回波。弓形回波前沿存在浅薄的低空γ中尺度涡旋,可导致下沉气流增强,并与后侧入流急流共同作用导致局地极端大风。中尺度数值模式对此次强对流天气的环流形势和降水落区具有一定的可预报性,但对流风暴的强度预报仍是预报的难点。
Based on the data of precipitation observation at Liaoning national station and regional automatic station,doppler weather radar,wind profile radar,and hourly reanalysis data of the ECMWF ERA5,the formation mechanism of extreme disaster-causing thunderstorms and gales in Shenyang from the evening to the night of June 25,2022,and the prediction effect of the numerical model were analyzed.The results show that the extreme hailstorm occurs under the background of the northeast cold vortex,the shear line,and the ground convergence line jointly trigger the generation of convective storms,and the strong vertical wind shear and unstable stratification enhance the development of hailstorms.In the process of the strong hailstorm,several strong convective cells gradually develop and appear as bow echoes after consolidation and enhancement.The existence of shallow low-level gamma mesoscale vortices in the front of the bow echo can lead to the enhancement of downdraft,and the combination with the backward inflow jet can lead to local extreme wind.The mesoscale numerical model can predict the circulation situation and precipitation area of severe convective weather to a certain extent,but the prediction of the intensity of the convective storm is still difficult.
作者
胡鹏宇
徐爽
耿世波
陈传雷
苏畅
陈晟源
HU Pengyu;XU Shuang;GENG Shibo;CHEN Chuanlei;SU Chang;CHEN Shengyuan(Liaoning Meteorological Disaster Monitoring and Early Warning Centre,Shenyang 110166,China;Shenyang Meteorological Service,Shenyang 110168,China;Tieling Meteorological Service,Shenyang 112000,China;Fuxin Meteorological Service,Shenyang 123000,China)
出处
《气象与环境学报》
2023年第5期9-18,共10页
Journal of Meteorology and Environment
基金
中国气象局复盘总结专项(FPZJ2023-031)
辽宁省气象局科学技术项目(2021SXB02、202204)
沈阳市气象局科学技术项目(SY202102、SY202204)
辽宁省气象局博士科研专项(D202304)
中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2023J013、CXFZ2021J016)共同资助。
关键词
雷暴大风
东北冷涡
强垂直风切变
弓形回波
Thunderstorm gale
Northeast cold vortex
Strong vertical wind shear
Bow echo
