摘要
系统属性与内外协调是美国对朝政策的重要特征,这源于朝鲜半岛地区是一种紧密型的地区体系。冷战结束初期的“一超多强”格局使得克林顿政府对朝政策的系统属性较弱,内外协调的特征十分明显。随着遏制中国战略的制定,美国对朝政策的系统属性逐渐增强,对朝政策逐渐失去独立性,开始套嵌于美国的亚太战略中。在内外协调方面,因国内战略共识的形成,内部协调的必要性逐步下降,但因韩国国内政治因素的存在,外部协调的特征仍然明显。从冷战结束初期的克林顿政府至当下执政的拜登政府,美国对朝政策整体上的发展轨迹展现出了上述特征。拜登政府执政后标榜其对朝政策以朝鲜半岛无核化为目标,并追求一种精准而务实的方法,但实际上,其对朝政策已全面回归至奥巴马政府时期的“战略忍耐”政策,且因美日韩三边安全合作体系的构筑以及对朝延伸威慑的强化,具有“战略忍耐”加强版的特征。拜登政府的这一政策本身内含着其难以克服的矛盾,一方面会刺激朝鲜,使朝鲜的拥核意志更加坚定,另一方面,它还需抑制因“朝鲜威胁”的存在而日渐走强的韩国拥核冲动,以使韩国在安全战略上更加依赖美国,这会促使矛盾和张力在美韩之间以及韩国国内左右政治势力之间产生,激化韩国的党争,进而有可能催生出更激进的政客和更激进的政策,并给朝鲜半岛和东北亚地区局势带来更为复杂的影响。
The systematic characteristics and internal and external coordination are important features of the United States policy towards DPRK,which stems from the fact that the Korean Peninsula region is a compact regional system.With the formulation of the containment strategy for China,the systematic characteristics of the United States policy towards DPRK has gradually strengthened,and its policy towards DPRK has gradually lost its independence,beginning to be embedded in the United States'Asia Pacific strategy.In terms of internal and external coordination,the need for internal coordination has gradually declined due to the formation of domestic strategic consensus,while the characteristics of external coordination are stilevident due to the existence of domestic political factors in South Korea.From the Clinton administration to the Biden administration,the evolution of US policy towards DPRK exhibits such characteristics.After the Biden administration came into power,it's policy towards the DPRK has fully returned to the"strategic Patience"of the Obama administration,and has the characteristics of Enhanced version of"Strategic Tolerance",due to the construction of the trilateral security cooperation system of the United States,Japan,and ROK and the strengthening of the extended deterrence against the DPRK.The enhanced version of the Biden administration's"strategic tolerance"contains contradictions.On the one hand,it will stimulate DPRK and make its nuclear will more firm.On the other hand,it also needs to curb ROK's growing nuclear impulse to make ROK rely more on the United States.This wll promote contradictions between the United States and ROK,as well as between the left and right political forces in ROK,intensify the party struggle in ROK and bring unpredictable effects on the situation in the Korean peninsula and Northeast Asia.
出处
《东北亚论坛》
CSSCI
北大核心
2023年第6期48-63,125,共17页
Northeast Asia Forum
基金
国家社科基金重点项目(21AZD002)。
关键词
拜登政府对朝政策
系统属性
内外协调
加强版“战略忍耐”
美日韩安全合作
Biden Administration's Policy Toward DPRK
Systematic Characteristics
Internal and External Coordination
Enhanced Version of"StrategicTolerance"
US-Japan-ROK Security Cooperation
